Editorial: Rethinking how many nuclear weapons are enough

The Editorial Board | St Louis Today

In the past, war plans were designed to inflict different levels of damage on hundreds of enemy targets — the more damage, the longer it would take the enemy to rebuild. “Light damage” meant they would be turned to rubble. “Moderate damage” meant turning them into gravel. “Heavy damage” meant turning them into dust. Those distinctions now are recognized as absurd. In a nuclear war involving as few as 100 one-megaton bombs, effects on planetary infrastructure and food supplies would be so severe as to make recovery unlikely for decades.

Texas has lost 5.6 million trees in cities to current drought

Farzad Mashhood / AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF

On Wednesday, Texas Forest Service researchers said the current drought claimed the lives of about 5.6 million trees in cities, or roughly 10 percent of the state’s urban forests, in the agency’s first attempt at counting urban tree loss. Those trees will cost at least $560 million to remove and provided about $280 million annually in environmental and economic benefits, a study released Wednesday said.

UN nuclear agency reports failed Iran talks

GEORGE JAHN / Associated Press

The U.N. nuclear agency on Wednesday acknowledged its renewed failure in trying to probe suspicions that Tehran has worked secretly on atomic arms, in a statement issued shortly after an Iranian general warned of a pre-emptive strike against any nation that threatens Iran.

Pakistan will not support Afghan talks until Kabul backs them, says minister

Julian Borger,  / The Guardian

Pakistan will not support a US-driven initiative to start Afghan peace talks in Qatar until it is clear that they have the backing of the Kabul government, the Pakistani foreign minister, Hina Rabbani Khar, has said.

Karzai urges calm as six die in Afghan Koran protests

Mirwais Harooni and Hamid Shalizi / Reuters

Afghan President Hamid Karzai appealed for calm Wednesday after officials said six people were shot dead and dozens wounded in protests over the burning of copies of the Koran, Islam’s holy book, at NATO’s main base in the country.

UN to bolster Somalia peacekeeping force Amisom

BBC

The UN Security Council is to vote to increase the African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia by more than 5,000 soldiers, diplomats have said.

Officials: Afghanistan, US looking at removing detention, night raids from partnership talks

Anne Gearan / AP

The U.S. and the Afghan governments are considering pushing through a long-delayed partnership agreement by relegating the contentious issues of night raids and control over detainees to separate negotiations, Afghan and U.S. officials said.

Israelis seem resigned to a strike on Iran

Joel Greenberg / The Washington Post

The wisdom of a strike on Iran has been debated here for months, with current and former security officials as well as political figures arguing over whether such a move would achieve its aims or provoke costly retaliation and possibly broader conflict without stopping Iran’s nuclear effort. On Tuesday, Iran warned that it might take preemptive action against its foes if it felt its national interests were threatened.

UPCOMING EVENT:  Biofuels for National Security: Air Force and Navy Progress on Renewable Jet Fuels

On the ASP Flashpoint blog:

Klum: Potential Issues in Arming the Syrian Rebels

Supporting the Syrian opposition forces requires a firm commitment from the United States and the international community. Their support must be more than the provision of military supplies. There has to be a commitment to the aftermath of the Syrian rebellion and a serious concern in improving the post-conflict situation.  Hopefully the desire of the US and the international community to support and arm the Syrian uprising is a genuine one. Their desire should be to build a better and safer Syria and it should more than a desire for toppling Assad.

Gold: Is Iran Striking Back?

Last week, another bomb with alleged connections to Iran exploded in Thailand.  The latest blast involved an Iranian man who after his explosives stash prematurely detonated, attempted to avoid arrest by throwing an explosive at Thai police, blowing off his own legs in the process.  Whether this latest spate of violence is connected to the attempted bombings of Israeli foreign diplomats in India and Georgia is yet to be determined.  But these recent events beg the question, is Iran striking back?

Holland: No Economic Choice is Without Cost

On the front page of today’s Washington Post, we see an article “Obama’s support for export industry leads to clash of U.S. interests.” The article details a dispute between Boeing, America’s largest single exporter, and Delta Airlines, one of Boeing’s biggest domestic customers. Delta alleges that Boeing’s exports to its foreign competition – the article mentions Air India – places Delta at a disadvantage, and has forced it to close routes between the US and India.

About the American Security Project: The American Security Project is a non-profit, non-partisan public policy and research organization dedicated to fostering knowledge and understanding of a range of national security issues, promoting debate about the appropriate use of American power, and cultivating strategic responses to 21st century challenges.

For more information, visit www.americansecurityproject.org. info@americansecurityproject.org

Biofuels for National Security: Air Force and Navy Progress on Renewable Jet Fuels

The American Security Project (ASP) cordially invites you to a lunchtime roundtable discussion on Biofuels for National Security: Air Force and Navy Progress to Renewable Jet Fuels on Thursday, March 1 at 12:00.

Air operations for the Navy and Air Force currently depend on a single energy source: petroleum. That poses economic and strategic drawbacks as oil prices can spike and our military is forced to protect the sources of the very oil it needs to fly. Both the Air Force and Navy are currently engaged in significant energy security programs to diversify their energy sources through the development of new biofuels that can act as ‘drop-in’ replacements for jet fuel.

Speakers will include:

Commander James Goudreau, Director, Navy Energy Coordination Office

 Carol Ann Beda, Director of Energy Policy, Office of Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Energy

The round table will be chaired by:

Andrew Holland

 Senior Fellow for Energy and Climate, American Security Project

The briefings and comments in this event will be used inform a forthcoming ASP White Paper focusing on the national security promise of advanced biofuels.

We anticipate a frank and open discussion between the audience and our speakers.

 We hope you can join us.

The briefing will take place on Tuesday, March 1 at 12:00 pm at ASP’s office, 1100 New York Ave., Suite 710W

The briefing will begin promptly at 12:00pm. Please arrive by 11:45am for registration.

 Sandwiches will be served

Please Reply by Monday, February 27to RSVP to this event as space is limited: events@americansecurityproject.org

ABOUT THE AMERICAN SECURITY PROJECT

 The American Security Project is a non-profit, non-partisan public policy and research organization dedicated to fostering knowledge and understanding of a range of national security issues, promoting debate about the appropriate use of American power, and cultivating strategic responses to 21st century challenges. For more information, visit www.americansecurityproject.org.

However, there are several issues that arise when discussing the possibility of arming the Syrian opposition.

The first main issue is who exactly are the Syrian forces opposing the Assad regime?

The Free Syrian Army (FSA) is made up of defectors from the Syrian Armed Forces but they do not comprise the whole opposition movement. There has been a desire to coordinate actions with the Syrian National Council, a coalition of Syrian opposition groups, but there has been no official unification of the two organizations. Without a true and unified movement to provide support, it would not be a wise decision to arm them at this time.

Second, if the opposition was to unify into a single unit and then arms were provided to them, there would most likely be a significant increase in the bloodshed, prolonging the conflict. It is likely that both the Syrian armed forces and the FSA would engage in larger-scale interaction if military support was given to the FSA opposition group.

More potential issues loom even if the revolt is successful in removing the Assad regime from power.

How will the arms be recovered from the opposition fighters following the conclusion of military operations? There will have to be recovery programs for the weapons and an effective DDR (disarmament, demobilization and reintegration) policy in place after the end of the conflict. If the fighters are not properly disarmed, militias may form and these militias may prevent the country from moving forward. This hypothetical situation would be similar to the current situation in Libya.

More importantly, the root problems causing the revolt need to be resolved.

Supporting the Syrian opposition forces requires a firm commitment from the United States and the international community. Their support must be more than the provision of military supplies. There has to be a commitment to the aftermath of the Syrian rebellion and a serious concern in improving the post-conflict situation.  Hopefully the desire of the US and the international community to support and arm the Syrian uprising is a genuine one. Their desire should be to build a better and safer Syria and it should more than a desire for toppling Assad.

Iran says UN nuke inspectors will not visit sites

NASSER KARIMI  / Associated Press

A U.N. team visiting Iran has no plans to inspect the country’s nuclear facilities and will only hold talks with officials in Tehran, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said Tuesday.

Yemen election ensures Saleh’s exit after 33 years

Joseph Logan and Mohammed Mukhashaf / Reuters

Yemen pushed Ali Abdullah Saleh from power after 33 years on Tuesday, voting to install his deputy as president with a mission to rescue the nation from poverty, chaos and the brink of civil war.

US looks to regime figure for transition in Yemen

BRADLEY KLAPPER /Associated Press

The Obama administration is putting its hopes for Yemen in a vice president long seen as the loyal deputy to strongman Ali Abdullah Saleh, confident that at the very least he can shore up a counterterrorism alliance with Washington against al-Qaida’s resurgent Arabian Peninsula offshoot.

Boldest nuclear cutters recently? It’s been GOP

AP

The Obama administration’s consideration of severe cuts in nuclear weapons generated a flurry of GOP criticism – “reckless lunacy” in the words of Arizona Rep. Trent Franks. But the historical record shows that in the two decades since the Cold War ended, Republicans have been the boldest cutters of the nuclear arsenal.

It’s Time for the U.S. to Finally Make Economic Peace With Russia

Joshua Foust / The Atlantic

In December, Russia passed an important milestone: it was approved for full membership in the World Trade Organization. The decision still needs to be ratified by Moscow, but Russia’s inclusion in the global community of trading partners seems all but assured. So what does this mean?

Canada threatens trade war with EU over tar sands  

The Guardian

Canada has threatened a trade war with European Union over the bloc’s plan to label oil from Alberta’s vast tar sands as highly polluting, the Guardian can reveal, before a key vote in Brussels on 23 February. “Canada will not hesitate to defend its interests, including at the World Trade Organisation,” state letters sent to European commissioners by Canada’s ambassador to the EU and its oil minister, released under freedom of information laws.

On the ASP Flashpoint blog:

Gold: Is Iran Striking Back?

Last week, another bomb with alleged connections to Iran exploded in Thailand.  The latest blast involved an Iranian man who after his explosives stash prematurely detonated, attempted to avoid arrest by throwing an explosive at Thai police, blowing off his own legs in the process.  Whether this latest spate of violence is connected to the attempted bombings of Israeli foreign diplomats in India and Georgia is yet to be determined.  But these recent events beg the question, is Iran striking back?

Holland: No Economic Choice is Without Cost

On the front page of today’s Washington Post, we see an article “Obama’s support for export industry leads to clash of U.S. interests.” The article details a dispute between Boeing, America’s largest single exporter, and Delta Airlines, one of Boeing’s biggest domestic customers. Delta alleges that Boeing’s exports to its foreign competition – the article mentions Air India – places Delta at a disadvantage, and has forced it to close routes between the US and India.

Dorsk: Young minds converge on Washington for International Model NATO Conference 2012

Students from top universities in the U.S. and around the world are gathering in Washington this weekend for the 2012 International Model NATO Conference.

In my capacity here at ASP, and as a Model NATO alum, I will be assisting with the conference’s social media, specifically Facebook. Using the conference’s social media, students have the opportunity to engage and collaborate prior to the start of the event, share materials and information during the conference, and then network afterward.

About the American Security Project: The American Security Project is a non-profit, non-partisan public policy and research organization dedicated to fostering knowledge and understanding of a range of national security issues, promoting debate about the appropriate use of American power, and cultivating strategic responses to 21st century challenges.

For more information, visit www.americansecurityproject.org. info@americansecurityproject.org

Israeli officials certainly think so.  Yesterday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed members of his Likud party, “Today we witnessed two attempts of terrorism against innocent civilians, Iran is behind these attacks and it is the largest terror exporter in the world”. Netanyahu added that Israel has disrupted other attacks in Azerbaijan and Thailand in recent months but did not elaborate on a possible Iranian connection.

These attacks come during a time of heightened tensions between the two countries.  Iranian officials are furious over the recent spate of assassinations and Israel’s use of MEK – a group both the United States and Iran regard as a terrorist organization – as hired guns.

If Iran is connected to these attacks, it would signify a new and dangerous era in Iranian-Israeli relations. This may indicate that the country is willing to go outside of their borders to attack foreign sites after years of playing defense and represents a situation that has moved past a war of words into a two-sided clandestine conflict.

It is also too early to discount Hezbollah involvement in these incidents as well. The powerful Shiite group has recently stated that it will take revenge for the 2008 Israeli assassination of Imad Mugniyah.

Although Hezbollah has not taken credit for the recent attacks, the group has shown its ability to undertake foreign military operations, most notably its bombings of Israeli targets in Argentina in 1992 and 1994.  However, Hezbollah involvement would not change the Israeli perception of these attacks as being Iranian directed since any attack would require at least tacit Iranian approval.

What happens next is a mystery. But these attacks may signal the beginnings of a new undercover war between Israeli and Iran that is slowly coming into the public’s view.  The longer these attacks continue, the more evidence there is that Iran or Hezbollah is reacting to Israeli-directed assassinations on their own terms and the more tensions increase in the region.

Andrew Holland / The Atlantic

Detroit’s rebirth is only beginning, and we should all count ourselves lucky that the rest of America never fell as far as Detroit did. But it can show us a way out of our long troubles. A hundred years ago, Detroit was the model for the country: the large integrated assembly line, represented by Ford’s River Rouge plant, showed us how to meet the needs of the 20th century. Today, by forging links between scientists and entrepreneurs, Detroit may provide a new model for re-energizing our cities.

Analysis: U.S. nuclear industry’s fate rests with Southern Co

Scott DiSavino and Eileen O’Grady / Reuters

The future of U.S. nuclear power rests squarely on the shoulders of Atlanta-based Southern Co, which will lead the industry’s effort to prove the concept of new reactor construction after a 30-year hiatus.

Panetta: No Iranian decision yet on nukes

DONNA CASSATA/  
Associated Press

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Thursday that U.S. intelligence  shows Iran is enriching uranium in a disputed nuclear program but that Tehran has not made a decision on whether to proceed with development of an atomic bomb

Alani: How Iran Nuke Standoff Looks to Saudis- Bloomberg

Mustafa Alani / Bloomberg

The most likely victims of a nuclear armed Iran are not the U.S. or Israel, but the Gulf states — countries that are engaged in intense competition with the regime in Tehran, but that lack the power to deter any threat or aggression with a nuclear-strike capability of their own.

U.S. can safely take deeper nuclear arms cuts, senior Defense official says

Elaine M. Grossman / Global Security Newswire

A top Defense Department official on Wednesday said a fresh round of reductions in strategic nuclear weapons could be done without harming U.S. security, though the Pentagon has not yet offered President Obama a recommendation on the matter.

 On the ASP Flashpoint blog:

Foust: Entrepreneurship and National Security

The very lively discussion centered around two themes: what the situation of foreign aid has been in the past and what changes could be made for the future. All of the panel speakers also spoke about the importance of fostering development in post-conflict situations and its impact on US national security.

Holland: No Economic Choice is Without Cost

On the front page of today’s Washington Post, we see an article “Obama’s support for export industry leads to clash of U.S. interests.” The article details a dispute between Boeing, America’s largest single exporter, and Delta Airlines, one of Boeing’s biggest domestic customers. Delta alleges that Boeing’s exports to its foreign competition – the article mentions Air India – places Delta at a disadvantage, and has forced it to close routes between the US and India.

Dorsk: Young minds converge on Washington for International Model NATO Conference 2012

Students from top universities in the U.S. and around the world are gathering in Washington this weekend for the 2012 International Model NATO Conference.

In my capacity here at ASP, and as a Model NATO alum, I will be assisting with the conference’s social media, specifically Facebook. Using the conference’s social media, students have the opportunity to engage and collaborate prior to the start of the event, share materials and information during the conference, and then network afterwards.

About the American Security Project: The American Security Project is a non-profit, non-partisan public policy and research organization dedicated to fostering knowledge and understanding of a range of national security issues, promoting debate about the appropriate use of American power, and cultivating strategic responses to 21st century challenges.

 For more information, visit www.americansecurityproject.org. info@americansecurityproject.org

The story buries the Lede somewhat by not getting to the central issue until the 5th paragraph: the re-authorization of the Export-Import Bank.  The Ex-Im Bank provides financing, generally in the form of loan guarantees, to American businesses seeking to export to foreign markets. Its authorization is due to expire in the coming months.

The Bank was created to close a market failure: financing for exports can be very difficult for companies to get because of the uncertainties about exporting to markets with different banking systems or government regulations. Because of these uncertainties, banks have traditionally not provided the loans needed to finance the exports.

I do worry that large companies like GE and Boeing are perfectly capable of getting the financing they need through free-market means, and that more funding should go to the smaller exporters than these large ones. However, that brings us to a second point on the need for the Bank - foreign competition. Almost every other country that we are competing with in exports has an entity similar to the Ex-Im Bank. In the case of Boeing and Air India cited in the article, if the bank hadn’t been able to provide the financing for that deal, I’m quite sure that the EU’s export financing mechanism would have jumped right in to support a sale of Airbus jets. So – Delta would still have been hurt, and an American company, supported by American workers, would have lost out on a deal.

Its unfortunate that this issue has been lumped into the Obama push for manufacturing and exports, because the Ex-Im Bank has been around for decades, and has been providing this financing for just as long. The Bank has enjoyed bipartisan support. It supports many small companies, and it should be re-authorized. This article shows that in the complicated inter-relationship of economics and policy. There are always going to be winners and losers when decisions are made: nothing is without cost.

The panel speakers included Philip Auerswald, Nathan Hodge, Ashley Chandler, ASP adjunct fellow Peter Choharis, and was moderated by ASP fellow Joshua Foust.

YOU CAN LISTEN TO THE EVENT

HERE

The very lively discussion centered around two themes: what the situation of foreign aid has been in the past and what changes could be made for the future. All of the panel speakers also spoke about the importance of fostering development in post-conflict situations and its impact on US national security.

Ms. Chandler, a senior manager at the non-profit organization Vital Voices, mentioned that the international affairs budget was only one percent of the overall federal budget. However, despite the amazing tools of development finance possessed by the US government towards development, these tools are not used enough.

Mr. Auerswald, a senior fellow at the Kauffman Foundation and an associate professor at George Mason University, stated that entrepreneurship promotes dynamic economic growth and also creates jobs. Unfortunately, current policy often focuses on funding the incumbent businesses to grow which blocks new firms from entering.

Unlike the other participants, Mr. Hodge, a Wall Street Journal reporter, was not so confident in the abilities of the US government to foster entrepreneurship. His concern was whether the government was promoting real entrepreneurship or fake entrepreneurship and discussed the US military “love affair” with development and aid.

Finally, Mr. Choharis spoke about how aid dollars are often given with expectations of results and the hope of the funding being “well spent”. However, this focus often leads to resentment on both sides and tends to be a short-sighted approach. He also spoke about the difficulties in getting capital from private businesses and their concern over the high risk environments of post-conflict regions.

Today’s discussion on entrepreneurship and national security will most likely not be the last on this topic.

There is widespread concern over the ineffectiveness of US foreign aid and there is interest for new and innovate ways to promote development in national security.

LEARN MORE HERE:

EXPEDITIONARY ECONOMICS WHITE PAPER

EXPEDITIONARY ECONOMICS FACT SHEET

SEBASTIAN ABBOT and ZARAR KHAN  / Associated Press

The Taliban say there has been no secret three-way discussion with the U.S. and Afghan governments, countering the Afghan president’s claim that such talks have taken place.

High-level drug meeting focuses on Afghanistan

GEORGE JAHN  / Associated Press

U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon spoke Thursday of a losing battle against the fight to eradicate drugs in Afghanistan, noting that opium production there has grown by 61 percent in the past year and warning that “time is not on our side.”

Former Afghan spy chief chafes at peace talks

Rob Taylor  / Reuters

Afghanistan’s government must not retreat from hard-won freedoms or return to strict religious curbs to reach a peace deal with the Taliban, the country’s former spy chief said, warning Afghans were distrustful of the secrecy surrounding nascent talks.

 Security vs. Reconciliation: The Afghan Conundrum

Ahmed Rashid / NY Review of Books

After eleven years of war, the Taliban’s public declaration that they will hold talks with the United States in Qatar is a major breakthrough for the political process, for Afghanistan’s internal stability, and for progress toward relative peace that will be needed by the US and NATO in 2014 before they can exit Afghanistan in good order and without too much further bloodshed.

EU’s Catherine Ashton has received Iran’s letter on nuclear talks, Yahoo News has confirmed

Laura Rozen / Yahoo News

The United States and Europe said they were studying a letter from Iran’s top nuclear negotiator responding to their proposal for new international nuclear talks. The letter from Iran’s Saeed Jalili was received by European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton on Wednesday, Ashton’s spokeswoman confirmed to Yahoo News.

US officials: Iran unlikely to strike unless hit

KIMBERLY DOZIER  / AP

Top U.S. intelligence officials are telling Congress that if Iran is attacked over its alleged nuclear weapons program, it could respond by closing the Strait of Hormuz to ships and launch missiles at regional U.S. forces and allies

 Army, Marine Corps Face Pitfalls When it Comes to Modernizing Equipment 

Stew Magnuson / National Defense Magazine

As budgets tighten and the military reduces ground forces, the Marine Corps’ failed attempt to field the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle may serve as a case study for those hoping to modernize military equipment.

On the ASP Flashpoint blog:

 Dorsk: Young minds converge on Washington for International Model NATO Conference 2012

Students from top universities in the U.S. and around the world are gathering in Washington this weekend for the 2012 International Model NATO Conference.

In my capacity here at ASP, and as a Model NATO alum, I will be assisting with the conference’s social media, specifically Facebook. Using the conference’s social media, students have the opportunity to engage and collaborate prior to the start of the event, share materials and information during the conference, and then network afterward.

 Klum: The Intervention Dilemma

The international community is taking note of the ongoing situation in Syria and the calls for humanitarian intervention will continue until the situation has been properly resolved. There are two out of many sides to the debate over intervention that is worth mentioning.

 Video: Progress toward inertial fusion ignition at NIF

A great update from Mike Dunne on the vast progress made towards fusion, on the SPIE website:

To date, all of the capabilies needed to conduct implosion experiments and demonstrate ignition and burn at NIF by the end of 2012 are in place. In this video, Dunne explains hurdles that have been overcome and challenges still remaining to achieve ignition.

Cheney: “shocked and appalled” in the proposed cuts for crucial funding for fusion energy science

 The cuts and changes in the Fusion Energy Sciences budget is emblematic a larger problem: a lack of long-term vision. Instead of investing in research and development for the long term, we seem to look for short-term fixes to our problems. 

About the American Security Project: The American Security Project is a non-profit, non-partisan public policy and research organization dedicated to fostering knowledge and understanding of a range of national security issues, promoting debate about the appropriate use of American power, and cultivating strategic responses to 21st century challenges.

For more information, visit www.americansecurityproject.org. info@americansecurityproject.org

To date, all of the capabilies needed to conduct implosion experiments and demonstrate ignition and burn at NIF by the end of 2012 are in place. In this video, Dunne explains hurdles that have been overcome and challenges still remaining to achieve ignition.

see the below video update from SPIE and check out the full story  here.

YOU CAN LEARN MORE ABOUT FUSION ON ASP’S FUSION WEBSITE