American Security Project » Publications

World Politics Review: Finding the Exit in Afghanistan

Jim Ludes — Fri, 09 Jul 2010 19:36:12 +0000

July 9, 2010

ASP Senior Fellow Michael A. Cohen writes:

In the two weeks since Gen. David Petraeus was nominated to be the new commander for U.S. and NATO operations in Afghanistan, continuity has been the dominant theme in describing what his replacement of ousted Gen. Stanley McChrystal represents. After all, Petraeus literally wrote the book on U.S. counterinsurgency (COIN) doctrine, which McChrystal tried to apply in Afghanistan over the past year. It only seems natural to expect that Petraeus will maintain the same approach.

But continuity is the worst possible option for U.S. efforts in Afghanistan, because it would mean maintaining a strategy that appears increasingly unlikely to succeed. Instead, President Barack Obama should use the change in command to modify his goal, from “winning” the war in Afghanistan to laying the political and military groundwork for withdrawal.

Failure to clearly identify which of these two paths would define the U.S. mission has been perhaps the Obama administration’s greatest strategic failing in Afghanistan.

To read the entire article, please click here.

[REPORT] ASP Releases Report on al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

Jim Ludes — Wed, 23 Jun 2010 18:19:52 +0000

Today the American Security project released a report analyzing U.S. efforts to counter Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the Yemen-based al Qaeda affiliate that claimed responsibility for the attempted bombing of a U.S. airliner on Christmas Day 2009. The report found that though AQAP has managed to take advantage of a security and governance gap to establish a safe haven, it has yet to fully rally discontented Yemenis to its extremist cause. It also found that the current U.S. effort to counter the AQAP, by tying the U.S. closer to the Yemeni government and focusing on military operations, has considerable potential to further strengthen the group and entrench it.

Study author Germain Difo, Policy Analyst for counter-terrorism at the American Security Project commented:“I found it interesting how assiduously AQAP has worked to co-opt local grievances and channel Yemenis’ anger toward the Yemeni government and the U.S. It’s also remarkable just how dangerously close our current Yemen counterterrorism policy comes to playing directly into al Qaeda’s narrative. With its finely tuned media sense and talent for targeted messaging , AQAP is very well-positioned to further capitalize on this oversight in the future and turn our recent military and intelligence-based efforts to our recent military and intelligence-based efforts to our direct disadvantage.”

Report key points include the following:

1)      AQAP’s entrenchment in Yemen is not a foregone conclusion.

2)      Direct or indirect U.S. military action will likely validate AQAP’s anti-American narrative and entrench the organization further.

3)      Without signficant incentives for governmental reform, neither military aid nor development assistance is likely to achieve the desired effect.

4)      Binding the United States close to the Saleh regime could make extrication difficult and will likely prove to be a long-term liability.

Download the full report here.

Yemen and US Security Update

[REPORT] ASP and Sierra Club Release Joint Report Outlining Dangers of Our Reliance on Foreign Oil and the Need for a New Transportation Infrastructure

Amber Allen — Thu, 27 May 2010 14:46:18 +0000

On the eve of Memorial Day weekend, the Sierra Club and the American Security Project released a joint report entitled “Ending Our Dependence on Oil,” which shows how America’s addiction to oil threatens our national security, our economy and our environment. The report states that to stop this dependence, we must invest in infrastructure that gives Americans safe and convenient alternatives to driving, improve the fuel economy of our cars, and develop the next generation of advanced biofuels.

“Memorial Day is the day when we honor the sacrifices of servicemen and women, and it is also one of the starting points of the summer, during which many Americans take to the roads for travel and vacations,” said James M. Ludes, PhD., Executive Director of the American Security Project. “There is no doubt that our nation’s addiction to foreign energy sources represents a dire security issue, and the release of this report – on this important holiday – represents an important first step toward developing solutions that can end our oil addiction and make our nation more secure.”

“We can go even farther, we can surpass that goal and we can send oil producers, and oil markets, a signal – America is serious about ending its addiction to oil,” said Sierra Club Executive Director Michael Brune. “That’s why we are calling on President Obama to create a solid plan for ending our country’s dependence on oil and to move us toward a clean energy economy.”

You can download the full report here.

Ending Our Dependence on Oil

Ordinary Measures, Extraordinary Results: An Assessment of Foiled Plots Since 9/11

bob filippone — Tue, 04 May 2010 19:11:34 +0000

A series of recent reports has identified several terrorist plots that have been “foiled” since 9/11. The reports highlight these cases as evidence that post-9/11 counterterrorism measures have been instrumental in protecting the United States against the threat of terrorism. These measures include using the recently renewed USA PATRIOT Act and amendments to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), pursuing the ongoing war in Afghanistan, and detaining terror suspects in the U.S. military facility at Guantanamo Bay. Commentators have also suggested that waterboarding and other torture methods used against terrorism suspects in U.S. custody are necessary and effective counterterrorism tools that have been critical in thwarting attacks and keeping Americans safe. These individuals recommend that several of these measures and methods be institutionalized and expanded to protect American national security.

This report analyzes 32 attacks that were thwarted since 9/11 to determine which factors led to the plots’ successful disruption. The report finds that in the majority of cases, traditional law enforcement techniques and methods developed prior to 9/11, direct and indirect action by concerned citizens, and international law enforcement cooperation contributed significantly to identifying terrorists and preventing attacks. It also finds that post-9/11 legislation and methods were instrumental in disrupting terror plots in only a relatively small number of cases.

You can read the full report here.

Foiled-Plots

[MID-YEAR REPORT] ASP Releases Update to "Are We Winning?" Report

Alyson Jeffcoats — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 18:22:03 +0000

The American Security Project recently released the mid-year update to their annual “Are We Winning?” Report, which showed a marked decrease in Islamist terrorism in the last two quarters of 2009 outside of the on-going conflict theaters of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Even though Islamist terrorist incidents still remain at historically high levels, the decrease at the end of 2009 was the largest since 2004, when National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) started tracking Islamist terrorist incidents.

The report, authored by ASP Senior Fellow Bernard Finel and Researcher Germain Difo, measures America’s progress in the fight against terrorism according to metrics that are designed to be both reproducible and objective.

Click here to read the full report...

Are We Winning – Mid Year Update 2010

ASP Releases New Report, “U.S. Export Controls: Emerging Consensus On Increasing Risk”

bob filippone — Tue, 20 Apr 2010 15:37:04 +0000

The American Security Project recently released a new report examining the US export control system and the need for greater transparency, predictability, as well as the need to protect fewer things better. The report, authored by ASP Senior Fellow Evelyn N. Farkas, specifically argues that the United States needs to develop a system which prohibits the transfer of critical military and dual-use technologies to countries, entities, and individuals that pose a real or potential threat to the United States; protects the technological edge of the U.S. military; fosters a strong defense industrial base; and facilitates interoperability and cooperation with U.S. allies and foreign partners.

Click Here to Read the Full Report

U.S. Export Controls: Emerging Consensus On Increasing Risk

International Law and the Victims of Climate Change

Amber Allen — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 19:01:22 +0000

Washington, DC – The American Security Project today released a report discussing the need to assist individuals impacted and displaced by climate change (IIDCCs). Authored by ASP Adjunct Policy Analyst Justin S. Rubin, the report details a four-part legal framework that must be enacted to provide support to IIDCC’s: a binding agreement between developed nations; a commitment by those nations to evacuate and resettle climate change victims; an adjudication method for deciding who needs to be relocated and to where individuals should be relocated; and retraining for resettled IIDCCs. Mr. Rubin states that if we do not assist climate change’s victims, we will face greater global instability and insecurity as well as likely be blamed for climate change’s effects.

Read the full report here.

Reforming the IPCC While Taking on Climate Change

amy pond — Mon, 29 Mar 2010 04:00:27 +0000

The American Security Project today released a new report entitled “Reforming the IPCC: While Taking on Climate Change” which urges reform in how climate change research is conducted and reported. The report, authored by ASP Senior Fellow Dr. Bernard Finel and ASP Research Analyst Lindsey Ross, states that the decision in February 2010 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to convene an outside review panel after coming under scrutiny is an important step. However, it is a step that ought to be bolstered with some additional measures to ensure transparency and accuracy.

Dr. Finel and Ms. Ross detail five main issues that need to be addressed to strengthen the reliability of climate science: lack of communication, faulty sources, lack of transparency, volunteer-based research, and regional environmentalists report on home countries.

The report states that it is unfortunate that a series of relatively minor, but highly publicized, incidents have tainted the credibility of the IPCC and climate science in the eyes of some. It concludes that improving the process and tackling the climate change challenge need to proceed simultaneously.

Click Here to Read the Report >>

Congress Cannot Wait for Courts to Create Climate Change Policy

amy pond — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 00:59:44 +0000

The American Security Project today released a new Perspectives piece, authored by ASP Adjunct Policy Analyst Justin S. Rubin and ASP Senior Fellow Dr. Bernard I. Finel, which responds to the increasing number of lawsuits seeking to assign liability to companies for emissions that have helped cause climate change.

The report, entitled: Congress Cannot Wait for Courts to Create Climate Change Policy, calls for Congress to pass comprehensive national climate change legislation to address the significant risk climate change poses to the country before court decisions create a patchwork of policies that differ from state to state. The report also rejects the idea of granting immunity from such lawsuits to energy and utility companies, saying such immunity would encourage distortions in market decisions and unfairly privilege them over individuals and other industries.

Click Here to Read the Report >>

In Support of a Civilian Trial: United States v. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed Should Not be a Test Case

amy pond — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 19:42:09 +0000

The American Security Project today released a new report, authored by ASP Adjunct Policy Analyst Justin Rubin, which assesses the decision to try to case of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in a civilian court. The piece, entitled: “In Support of a Civilian Trial: United States v. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed Should Not be a Test Case,” argues that the case is better tried in a civilian court, because of military commissions’ inexperience. This difference makes using a civilian court to try the 9/11 case – which is too important, high-profile, and sensitive to serve as a test case – essential.

Insights include:

- The law governing the current military commission – the Military Commission Act of 2009 – was passed less than three months ago and due to its lack of judicial testing, is likely to face significant questions in any case under it.

- Prior to ruling against the first post 9/11 military commissions, the Supreme Court had not ruled on the constitutionality of military tribunals in over 50 years. In that time, the United States signed the Geneva Convention, which defined rights for prisoners of war, and the Supreme Court expanded civil liberties protections, changing the landscape of the law behind the tribunals.

- While military commissions remain untested, civilian courts have been demonstrably effective in handling terrorist prosecutions.

- By choosing the more stable forum, the Attorney General avoided lengthening the process for trying Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and placing an unnecessary burden on the country and the families of the 9/11 victims.

Click Here to Download the Report >>