Benjamin Kang Lim / Reuters

China has been quietly and gently pressuring North Korea to scrap plans for a third nuclear test, said two sources with knowledge of closed-door discussions between the countries, but there is no indication how the North will react.

UPDATE: EU Navies Launch First Land Strike On Somali Pirates

Sarah Kent, Vanessa Mock and Neena Rai / DOW JONES NEWSWIRES  

European naval aircraft fired at a pirate base on the Somali coastline Tuesday, in an unprecedented offensive against pirates that threaten international oil shipments off the Horn of Africa.

Clinton welcomes French push for European growth policies

Richard Wolf / USA Today

As President Obama prepares to greet new French President Francois Hollande at the White House on Friday before summits with world leaders at Camp David and in Chicago, Clinton welcomed Hollande’s “different political approach.”

Export-Import Bank reauthorized by Senate

Rosalind S. Helderman / Washington Post

On a broad bipartisan vote of 78 to 20, the Senate voted Tuesday to extend the life of the U.S. Export-Import Bank and expand its authority to make loans to U.S. exporters.

U.S. nuclear expert: Iran official linked to past program

Tabassum Zakaria / Reuters

Communications from the 1990s suggest Iran’s current foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, had knowledge of a program to procure goods for an alleged clandestine nuclear program when he was head of a university, a U.S. nuclear expert said on Tuesday.

Iran’s tough nuclear stance masks struggles at top

ALI AKBAR DAREINI and BRIAN MURPHY / AP

The negotiating stance from Iranian officials never varies: The Islamic Republic will not give up its capabilities to make nuclear fuel. But embedded in the messages are meanings that reach beyond Tehran’s talks with world powers.

Afghanistan hopeful of extra US cash to fund security

guardian.co.uk

Afghanistan is confident the US will stump up billions of extra dollars for its army and police on top of the main chunk of a $4.1bn (£2.6bn) annual budget that is expected to be sealed at a Nato summit this month, an Afghan diplomat has said.

Ex-Soviet Uzbekistan plans privatization drive

AP

Uzbekistan’s government plans to sell off almost 500 state assets over the next two years in an ongoing drive to expand the private sector in this former Soviet nation.

U.S. says most oil, gas acreage is idle
UPI

More than two-thirds of the onshore and offshore acreage leased for oil and natural gas exploration remains idle, the U.S. Department of Interior said.

On Our Flashpoint Blog

New ASP event: A Conversation with Walter Pincus: Nukes, Missiles, and the Truth

Holland: House Armed Services Committee Threatens Shut Down of Successful Biofuel Development

Wired’s Danger Room blog has an important story by Noah Shachtman, “Republicans Order Navy to Quite Buying Biofuels” about the Department of Defense’s biofuels program. As ASP has written about before, the Department of Defense has become a leader on developing alternative fuels because they see that dependence on oil is a threat to national security. The U.S. Navy in particular has been active in developing alternative fuels. This makes sense: since the beginning of the Republic, the Navy has been a leader in developing and embracing new transportation technologies. From sail to steam to oil to nuclear, the Navy has led the way in technology development. Today, they’re trying to do so again, by moving away from their dependence on oil.

Gold: HASC and the NDAA: New Barriers to Safely Reducing the US’s Nuclear Arsenal

Last week the House Armed Services Committee produced their final Committee markup of the FY13 National Defense Authorization Act.  The bill should go to the House floor for final passage sometime later this month.  Included in the bill are some sections that limit the ability of the president to safely reduce, pursuant to the New START Treaty signed with Russia last year, the strategic nuclear forces of the United States.

Wallin: Land of Dreams and Tourism

Yesterday, I was introduced to a new campaign to increase tourism to the United States. The material I have seen includes advertising spots, available here, which do a great job at showcasing the diversity of America.

Holland: The Threats of Climate Change to Security Deserve Study

A Washington Times Editorial simply goes too far in attacking climate science over a statement made by Secretary of Defense Panetta.

About the American Security Project: The American Security Project is a non-profit, non-partisan public policy and research organization dedicated to fostering knowledge and understanding of a range of national security issues, promoting debate about the appropriate use of American power, and cultivating strategic responses to 21st century challenges.

For more information, visit www.americansecurityproject.org. info@americansecurityproject.org

“The world has changed, but the current arsenal carries the baggage of the cold war.  There is the baggage of significant numbers in reserve. There is the baggage of a nuclear stockpile beyond our needs. What is it we’re really trying to deter? Our current arsenal does not address the threats of the 21st century.”

He feels that U.S. nuclear deterrence can be effectively guaranteed with 900 nuclear warheads, down from the limit of 1,550 warheads set in the New START agreement with Russia.  These reductions will reduce an already inflated force and save $100 billion over a decade.

Read the full article here

 “We originally published the metrics paper last October, as the war passed its tenth anniversary. Now, with a major NATO summit approaching this month in Chicago, w’ve updated the report to take account of the last six months… none of which bode well.”

“Afghanistan is going to be one of the biggest topics under discussion at the NATO summit in Chicago later this month. As officials debate whether to continue to adhere to the Lisbon goals, set at the end of 2010, it is important to understand how we come to understand the war and how we’re not sure if we’re progressing toward our goals.”

Joshua Foust, author of the report.

Read the report below of download it from here.
Measuring Success – Are We Winning – 10 Years in Afghanistan -May 2012

U.S. and NATO forces will encounter the events listed below between now and the official 2014 full transition of security operations to the Afghan Forces. We present them in the spirit of informing a debate about planning for the future of U.S. policy in the region.

Read the fact sheet below or download it from here.

Factsheet – Afghanistan Timeline to 2014 May 2012 Version

The story reports that the Navy’s efforts has met resistance from Republican members of the Committee who, in their recently-passed 2013 Defense Authorization bill, prohibited the DoD from buying alternative fuels, unless the price falls below petroleum fuels.

I spent some time this morning looking through the House Armed Services Committee’s legislation (H.R.4130, the National Defense Authorization Act of FY13) to dive further into what Republicans are actually asking the Navy to do. Interestingly, the Committee’s report “Commends the Department of Defense for its emphasis on energy reductions, investments in renewable projects that result in long-term savings, and more efficient processes that reduce demand for fuel consumption.” The report goes on to that the committee is “concerned about fluctuating fuel prices, and the resulting shortfalls and impacts on the operation and maintenance accounts.”

We see, then, that the Armed Services Committee has correctly identified the variability of fuel prices as a major problem for the Department of Defense. I agree: ASP has identified oil dependence as a significant threat to national security for the precise reason that it places American consumers, including the Department of Defense, at the mercy of wild swings in prices. The Navy says that a $1 increase in the price of a barrel of oil costs it $31 million per year.

Unfortunately, the committee’s actions in this issue go directly in opposition to their stated concern about fuel price fluctuation. Section 314 of the bill prohibits “the production or purchase” of any alternative fuel if the cost exceeds “traditional fossil fuel.” We know that, as of now, the biofuels the Navy is buying are about four times as expensive as petroleum fuels. However, those prices are rapidly going down. In a March event “Biofuels for National Security” here at ASP, the Navy and Air Force said that they expect biofuels to be competitive at cost with petroleum-based fuels by the end of this decade, and faster if the industry receives government support.

We know that the way to mitigate fuel price fluctuations is to develop alternatives to petroleum-based fuels, not to shut-down efforts to develop those alternatives, as House bill would do. The Navy should invest in an alternative source of fuel – one that is being developed here at home by innovative American companies and that can be grown by American farmers. Developing these alternatives is the only way that the U.S. can get rid of our dependence on oil. Public-private partnerships between industry and the military have a long history here in the U.S. – including the development of the steel industry, the superconductor industry, and even – as shown in the Atlantic Magazine –aluminum forges.

The Navy should be allowed to continue this bipartisan tradition of public-private partnerships for national security. The Senate’s Authorization bill will be different; when the Authorization process is finally complete, the bill should follow the House’s stated concerns about oil price fluctuations, not its actions. I should not include a section gutting a successful example of a partnership that promotes next generation energy and national security.

Vice President Joseph Biden said in a speech that Iran’s window for a peaceful resolution to the nuclear standoff is closing “in the near term” and that “we take no option off the table as part of our determination to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.” He then talked about the new round of oil sanctions that is slated to go into effect on July 1, “We’re not doing anything but tightening the screws, unless Iran changes course, the pressure will keep increasing.”

The Middle East WMD Free Zone talks seem to be in doubt as Finnish diplomat Jaakko Laajava stated, “Unfortunately, while much has de facto been already achieved in these consultations in terms of identifying common ground, I cannot yet report that the conference will be attended by all states of the region.”  Egypt originally proposed talks for sometime in 2012, but it is looking increasingly unlikely that such a meeting will take place this year.

Experts acknowledge that even if North Korea does test a third nuclear device, the country has a long way to go before it has the ability to deploy a nuclear weapon.  “There can be a huge difference between a nuclear explosive ‘device’ and a weapon,” said Ivan Oelrich, a nuclear weapons consultant and former head of strategic weapons at the Federation of American Scientists. “We have no idea how large North Korea’s bombs are, or even whether they have anything that would be described as a ‘bomb.’”  The recent failure of North Korea’s rocket coupled with the limited yields and possible “fissile” of their past nuclear tests makes it extremely unlikely that the country will deploy a nuclear weapon soon.

May 10

The Missile Defense Agency successfully intercepted a test missile off the coast of Hawaii late last night.  The SM-3 Block 1B missile launched from the USS Lake Erie intercepted a test missile shortly after 8 PM Wednesday.  This was the first in a series of tests for the SM-3 1B and it is on track to go into full production and deployed for the Phased Adaptive Approach missile defense system in Europe by 2015.  While the SM-3 1B is more advanced than its predecessor, using a two-color infrared seeker to expand the missile’s range and maneuverability, it is not able to intercept an ICBM and can only be used against a missile in mid-course.

The House Armed Services Committee approved their version of the FY13 National Defense Authorization Act that authorizes $554 billion for the Pentagon.  The HASC appropriated a total of $18.1 billion for the NNSA including, $2.3 billion for directed stockpile work and $2.4 billion for defense nuclear nonproliferation.  The Committee also approved language that would require the Air Force’s new long-range bomber to be nuclear weapons capable. The Committee also approved an amendment in the FY13 NDAA that supports “steps to deploy additional conventional forces of the United States and redeploy tactical nuclear weapons to the Western Pacific region” in response to the North Korean nuclear weapons and missile programs.  The amendment mandates Secretaries Clinton and Panetta report on the feasibility and logistics of redeploying tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea.

Pakistan test fired a second nuclear-capable missile called the Hatf III Ghaznavi a week after test firing an IRBM called the Shaheen-1A.  The SRBM Hatf III Ghaznavi has a range of 180 miles (290 km) and was launched at the conclusion of annual field training exercises

An unidentified North Korean committee spokesman says the country will further strengthen its “nuclear deterrent” to protect its sovereignty “regardless of whatever the price it would pay,” and will continue to work towards bolstering its nuclear arsenal.

May 13

China, South Korea, and Japan warned North Korea that they will not tolerate any additional nuclear tests.  “Our three countries agreed that we will not accept further nuclear tests or further provocations from North Korea,” said South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak.

Iran has been routinely shutting off satellite tracking systems on its sea-bound oil tankers for more than a month in an effort to avoid the sanctions now hitting the country.  Sanctions have severely hurt the value of the Iranian Rial making it increasingly difficult to “pay for materials for the nuclear program, and, more broadly, it puts pressure on the leadership,” said David Cohen, Treasury Department’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence.

May 14

Iranian and IAEA negotiators are beginning a two-day meeting this week to discuss Iranian intransigence in allowing inspectors to visit all nuclear sites and have access to vital information on their nuclear program.  “In particular, clarification of the possible military dimensions remains our priority…It is important now that we can engage on the substance of these issues and that Iran let us have access to people, documents, information and sites” said Herman Nackaerts, deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency.  At the top of IAEA’s agenda may be access to the nuclear site at Parchin, which has been rumored to house nuclear weapons related work.  Furthermore, an IAEA report last November found that Iran had constructed a containment vessel in 2000 that may be “strong indicators of possible (nuclear) weapon development.”

An unnamed source provided the Associated Press with a drawing of an alleged explosive test chamber at the Iranian military base at Parchin.  It shows a large chamber in a warehouse-type building with a main pipe leading from the front.  The image was provided to the AP by a member of an IAEA country that is critical of Iran’s assertions about the peaceful nature of their nuclear program.  However, while a former IAEA official Olli Heinonen, believes to be the pressure chamber the IAEA suspects is at Parchin, it is not clear if it is genuine or comes from the Parchin site.

“Trans-Atlantic Relations Between US & European Muslims”

The Guardian

Financial markets are hastily making preparations for a Greek exit from the euro after a day of political and economic turmoil ended with Europe‘s policy elite admitting for the first time that it may prove impossible to keep the single currency intact.

Venizelos: Greece talks fail

AP

Greek socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos says that Greece is going to new elections after talks produced no deal

 Iran envoy says talks with UN nuke agency ‘good’

GEORGE JAHN / Associated Press

Iran’s envoy to talks with the U.N. nuclear agency said Tuesday the meeting was going well, as the two sides began their second day of discussion of agency suspicions that Tehran might have tested atomic arms technology.

 Francois Hollande becomes France’s new president

GREG KELLER and SYLVIE CORBET / Associated Press

Francois Hollande became president of France on Tuesday in a ceremony steeped in tradition, taking over a country worried about Europe’s future and pledging to make it a fairer place

NATO invites Pakistan to summit

SLOBODAN LEKIC  / Associated Press

NATO will invite Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari to the alliance’s summit in Chicago, after the country’s foreign minister proposed reopening its Afghan border to NATO military supplies, officials said Tuesday.

Pakistan Shuts Its Border; Pentagon Shuts Its Mouth

Spencer Ackerman / Wired.com

For nearly six months, Pakistan has closed its ground shipping routes to convoys resupplying the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan. Getting those resupply routes open is preoccupying U.S. military officers and diplomats as they haggle, sweet-talk, beg and cajole their Pakistani counterparts, since alternative shipping routes are vastly more expensive. Exactly how expensive, the Pentagon won’t say, probably because disclosing that figure could undermine the U.S. in its talks with its Pakistani frenemy.

Airlines ‘are conforming’ with EU rules on emissions

Richard Black / BBC

The vast majority of airlines have conformed with EU rules on reporting carbon dioxide emissions, the European Commission has said. 

On Our Flashpoint Blog

New ASP event: A Conversation with Walter Pincus: Nukes, Missiles, and the Truth

Gold: HASC and the NDAA: New Barriers to Safely Reducing the US’s Nuclear Arsenal

Last week the House Armed Services Committee produced their final Committee markup of the FY13 National Defense Authorization Act.  The bill should go to the House floor for final passage sometime later this month.  Included in the bill are some sections that limit the ability of the president to safely reduce, pursuant to the New START Treaty signed with Russia last year, the strategic nuclear forces of the United States.

Wallin: Land of Dreams and Tourism

Yesterday, I was introduced to a new campaign to increase tourism to the United States. The material I have seen includes advertising spots, available here, which do a great job at showcasing the diversity of America. 

Holland: The Threats of Climate Change to Security Deserve Study

A Washington Times Editorial simply goes too far in attacking climate science over a statement made by Secretary of Defense Panetta.

ASP Reports and Media

The War on Terror: One Year On

One year ago, Osama bin Laden was killed in a daring nighttime raid by Navy SEALs on his compound in a small military garrison town in Pakistan. Since then, how has the war on terror changed? Should we be looking at it more critically than we are? In this essay collection, we examine the war on terror from several angles not often found in the popular discourse.

About the American Security Project: The American Security Project is a non-profit, non-partisan public policy and research organization dedicated to fostering knowledge and understanding of a range of national security issues, promoting debate about the appropriate use of American power, and cultivating strategic responses to 21st century challenges.

For more information, visit www.americansecurityproject.org. info@americansecurityproject.org

These sections also unnecessarily tie in nuclear weapons reductions with funding for the Chemistry and Metallurgy Re-Processing Facility (CMRR).  This facility that delayed in the Administration’s budget request   because of budget restraints established the Budget Control Act and because at this time it is not necessary to the continued sustainment and procurement of nuclear weapons.

Section 1053 establishes that the President would be prohibited from reducing the amount of nuclear weapons in the U.S. arsenal if funding for modernization programs is not at or above the level set out in section 1251 of FY10 NDAA.  It would not allow nuclear weapons reductions to continue unless the President restored funding.  This is almost completely unworkable as it relies on two year old estimates to set funding guidelines for a multi-year project.  What if the actual amount of funding is lower than what is estimated in the FY10 NDAA?  It looks like the President will have to fund it at its estimated level, possibly missing out on cost savings in the long run.

Sections 1056 and 1057 further attempts to prevent the President from safely reducing our nuclear weapons levels pursuant to the New START treaty.  Section 1056 makes the President certify that reductions will not place the U.S. strategic force below that of Russia.  If it is smaller than Russia’s it requires the STRATCOM commander to issue a report of the strategic imbalance and 180 days has elapsed.  This again attempts to restrain the President from reducing our strategic weapons and is superfluous since the Russians have consistently had a lower number of weapons than the U.S.

Section 1057 prevents funding for nuclear weapons reductions unless the President issues a report on foreign nuclear weapons programs and the STRATCOM commander certifies on whether the reductions will have implications for U.S. national security.

Finally, Section 1058 requires the President to certify that the CMRR facility will be built by 2021 and operational by 2024.  If the President cannot, then no funding for reducing the number of non-deployed warheads will be provided.   Yet because of the Budget Control Act of 2011, construction of the CMRR was put on hold for five years after the NNSA felt existing facilities were adequate for the current mission.