The Need to Prepare for Climate Change in the Arctic
According to a new report by the National Academies, and reported in the Washington Post, it is imperative the Navy and Coast Guard begin to more closely monitor and prepare for the effects of climate change in the Arctic. This call to action comes directly from the National Research Council (NRC), which claims that more missions need to be conducted in the Arctic to plan for potential damage to bases from rising sea levels, a result of rising global temperatures.
According to the report, Arctic Ocean sea lanes, typically obstructed due to Arctic ice, could be passable all year by 2030. Recently, ASP discussed this threat:
Overtime, it is predicted that the ice-free period will gradually increase, leading to a new sea lane that would rival both the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Malacca as one of the key global shipping lanes. In fact, an ice-free Arctic would reduce the navigable distance between Rotterdam in the Netherlands and Yokohama, Japan by 40%.
The NRC has advocated that to protect U.S. interests in the region, the Navy must increase its cold-weather training and operations programs. However, this is not the only threat. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the Arctic Circle contains 13% of the unexploited oil and 30% of the unexploited natural gas in the world. Conflicts over these vast mineral deposits could possibly develop between Arctic bordering nations as the ice melts and access grows easier.
According to the Russian Oil and Gas Institute Director, Anatoly Dmitriyevsky, the untapped Arctic is already a major component of Russia’s Energy Security Doctrine:
Russian energy security is significantly associated with the development of its Arctic regions. State borders, which have not yet been fixed there, are supposed to coincide with continental shelf borders, as laid down in the UN convention on the Law of the Sea. Given that oil and gas exploration will inevitably spread to Arctic waters one day, we need to start establishing relations with our neighbors.
In addition to the geopolitical problems that will be created by the melting Arctic, the new study warns:
Climate change would bring rising sea levels, potentially accompanied by stronger, more frequent storm surges. This could endanger Navy and Coast Guard installations. An estimated $100 billion of Navy installations would be at risk from sea-level rise of three feet or more, the study said. It called on the Navy, Marine Corps and Coast Guard to coordinate efforts to reduce these hazards.
The report also notes more frequent storm surges, coupled with rising sea levels are likely to contribute to environmental disasters, placing greater stress on U.S. naval forces. As committee co-chair Antonio J. Busalacchi, director of the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center at the University of Maryland stated:
Naval forces must be prepared to provide more aid and disaster relief in the decades ahead.
Climate change presents real and growing economic and security threats and the U.S. must take definitive steps to address them. As noted in the report, this means:
U.S. naval leaders should continue to stress to Congress the value and operational benefits of ratifying the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea… U.S. naval forces should also work with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and allies to strengthen international capabilities to respond to predicted climate change challenges in the Arctic and worldwide.
