Russia Sees Climate Change as Security Threat
There are some who insist that only a few publicity-seeking generals and admirals believe climate change is a national security threat. Tell that to the Russians.
Last week, the Russian Security Council met to discuss how changes in the Earth’s climate would directly impact the security of Russia and its relations with its neighbors. Domestically, Russia has more at stake than most. Given the size of the permafrost region in Russia (nearly 66% of the country), the melting that is occurring now threatens to undermine the foundations, literally, of entire cities. As one expert put it, “a quarter of the houses built in Tiksi, Yakutsk, Vorkuta, and other population centers will become completely unsuitable for habitation.” While Tiksi has a population of just over 5,000, Yakutsk has nearly 225,000 residents, and Vorkuta has over 105,000. By way of comparison, the city of Hartford, Connecticut, has about 125,000 residents.
Throughout ASP’s work on climate change, we’ve emphasized the potential risk of Arctic competition with Russia. The Russians are tremendously critical of Canada and see the potential for conflict, and they believe they are being denied their rightful access to the region. As Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev said in opening the meeting of the Security Council:
We must not forget either that climate change can give rise not only to physical change, change in the nature around us, but can also see the emergence of disputes between countries over energy exploration and extraction, the use of marine transport routes, bioresources, and shortages of water and food resources. The countries bordering the Arctic region are already actively engaged in expanding their research, economic and even military presence in the Arctic. Unfortunately, in this situation we are seeing attempts to limit Russia’s access to exploring and developing Arctic energy deposits, which is inadmissible from a legal point of view and unfair in terms of our country’s geographical location and very history.
Russian security experts, in fact, see challenges to the North and South. As the Georgian press reported:
All these developments, the Security Council official said, affect Russia’s national security, but he stressed that there were two other more immediate security challenges that global warming presents. On the one hand, he said, global warning has sparked competition for access to the Arctic, with the US and other countries seeking to limit Russia’s access to that region.
And on the other – and this is a more intriguing comment – Averyanov said that in addition, “the risk of [inter-state] conflicts connected with the deficit of water and food [arising out of climate change] is especially high to the south” of Russia, even though most discussion hitherto has focused on the Arctic instead.
So the Russian national security community joins their counterparts in the United States, in Canada, and in the United Kingdom, among others, in grappling with the implications of climate change. I don’t see this as the securitization of climate. No one honestly believes that there is a military solution to climate change. But it is a testament to the risk climate change poses and the need to manage that risk now.
