Drone Strikes "Batter" AQ, But What Next?
Drones Batter Al Qaeda and Its Allies Within Pakistan – New York Times
In the first six weeks of this year, more than a dozen strikes killed up to 90 people suspected of being militants, according to Pakistani and American accounts. There are now multiple strikes on some days, and in some weeks the strikes occur every other day.
The strikes have cast a pall of fear over an area that was once a free zone for Al Qaeda and the Taliban, forcing militants to abandon satellite phones and large gatherings in favor of communicating by courier and moving stealthily in small groups.
That al Qaeda and the Haqqani Network are on the run in North Waziristan and having more difficultly conducting attacks is a positive development. It is also probably darkly gratifying for Americans to hear that al Qaeda commanders and low-level operatives alike are being forced to literally sleep with one eye open, conjuring images of frantic, exhausted militants turning their red-rimmed eyes skyward, trying in vain to stay one step ahead of swift, sure American justice delivered from above.
Terrorists being forced to dump cellphones and give up their Range Rovers for the bus feels like progress, and it is. If terrorists can’t call each other or step outside without literally risking death, they are clearly being more effectively pressured than ever before.
This still, however, begs an important question one should pose when considering targeted killings as a self-standing counterterrorism strategy: Even once commanders and other senior figures are dead, without any more comprehensive “what’s next” planning in place how does one prevent those leaders from eventually being replaced without keeping drones perpetually crisscrossing the Pakistani sky until the end of time?
Keeping AQ and Haqqani network operatives on the run and thinking that every breath is their last will yield some benefits short term, but until we start thinking a little about how to blend the positive effects of missile strikes into a more sustainable long-term strategy, we may just end up chasing our tails.
