Finel Responds to Carafano on Global Warming and Conflict

Dr. Bernard Finel, Senior Fellow at ASP, wrote the following response to Dr. James Carafano’s statement at a recent event at the University of Central Florida. As reported by the Orlando Sentinel, Dr. Carafano argued that global political violence is declining:

“Carafano, a historian, said that the idea of looking forward and accurately predicting the effects of climate change is unrealistic. The issues of climate change and environmental impact are not new, he said. When you look at the declining levels of global political violence, things have been getting better instead of worse, he said.”

Dr. Finel responded with the following comments in ASP’s Flashpoint Blog:

“As with many arguments about global warming, it all depends on how you slice the data. While it is true, for instance that there has been no global warming if you compare the year 1998 to the present, an analysis that begins in either 1997 or 1999 does show warming. It is always, possible, in short to cherry-pick data in order to make a point. The same is true with the issue of political violence or conflict.

“According to data compiled by the Center for the Study of Civil War, there has been in a decline in civil conflict since the early 1990s. However, compared to the year 2000, there has been an increase. Compared to 1975, an increase. Compared to 1965, an increase. Compared to 1955, an increase. Compared to the average number of conflicts per year since 1946, an increase.”

Finel concludes:

“The point isn’t that climate change causes conflict anyway. The point is that climate change is likely to exacerbate existing conflicts. The end of the Cold War was clearly a more significant influence on trends in conflict than climate change has been thus far. Nevertheless, political violence has increased significantly over the last decade, and while the levels are lower than in the late 1980s and early 1990s, they are higher than the average level over the past 50 years.”