[FLASHPOINT] The Long Road Ahead for Missile Defense Cooperation with Russia
By Eric Auner
NATO’s Secretary General has rejected a Russian proposal that calls for direct Russian participation in the planned NATO missile defense system. This proposal is inconsistent with the U.S. preference for separate U.S./NATO and Russian missile defense systems.
This is not the first Russian missile defense proposal which has been unacceptable to leaders in the West, and it will not be the last.
Episodes like this can be frustrating, but leaders on both sides must be patient for what is sure to be a long, drawn-out process.
The history of negotiations with Russia on strategic issues is not one of quick, decisive action. Nevertheless, as the recent New START treaty shows, the United States and Russia have been able to negotiate agreements that enhance strategic stability and strengthen the security of both sides. While the New START treaty built on a decades-long history of strategic arms control diplomacy, however, an agreement on missile defense would be an unprecedented step forward.
Both sides are currently in the process of positioning themselves in anticipation of future discussions on missile defense. Russia has long-standing fears that a U.S. system will undermine its nuclear deterrent, fears that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev publicly reiterated last month. These fears are misplaced, given that capabilities of the European Phased Adaptive Approach will not come close to countering the huge Russian nuclear arsenal, but they must be addressed in any negotiation. The United States, on the other hand, is committed to preserving an independent missile defense capability to defend the United States and its allies, and Russia must acknowledge that this will not change.
The likelihood that either side is going to accept the initial proposals of the other is approximately zero. The potential long-term gains from cooperation are vast.
This is crossposted on the American Security Project “Flashpoint” blog…
