Climate Change Effects Due to Carbon Emission
By Kalpana Palkhiwala
The adverse effects caused to environment due to carbon emission include increased frequency of extreme weather events, and variation in pattern of monsoons, rise in surface temperature, sea level rise and melting of glaciers along with other factors. Climate Change is also likely to affect agriculture and food production and result in increase incidence of vector borne diseases.
The effects on human life include increase in malnutrition and consequent disorders, with implications for child growth and development; increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts; increased burden of diarrhoeal disease and altered spatial distribution of some infectious-disease vectors.
The Government follows the policy of sustainable development through a range of programmes aimed at energy conservation, improved energy efficiency in various sectors, promoting use of renewable energy, power sector reforms, use of cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel for transport, fuel switching to cleaner energy, afforestation and conservation of forests, promotion of clean coal technologies and encouraging Mass Rapid Transport systems.
The National Action Plan on Climate change has been launched which includesNational Solar Mission and National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency which aim at reducing emissions intensity of GDP.
Emissions from agriculture sector are not included in the assessment off emissions intensity. However, improvement in tilling practices, use of more bio fertilizers and sustainable agricultural practices may result in reduction in emissions intensity of agricultural production.
India, is very conscious of the local impacts of climate change within its boundaries. Embedded in the UNECCC & the Bali Action Plan, it is fully alive to its global responsibilities as well. Even with 8-9% GDP growth every year for the next decade or two, India’s per capita emissions is likely to be well below developed country averages.India’s energy intensity of production has been falling with improvements in energy efficiency, autonomous technological changes and economical use of energy. India’sclimate modeling studies show that its per capita emissions will be around 2-2.5 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2020 and around 3-3.5 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030, as compared to around 1-1.2 tonnes presently.
It has also stated that further actions of the developing countries will depend on the support in terms of finance and technology provided by the developed countries. Our country is willing to accept Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) as per agreed procedures for those actions that are supported by the International Community in terms of finance and technology through agreed channels, its voluntary actions financed from its own domestic resources will be available for information and for consultation of the International Community. While India has taken a number of steps, on its own, to adapt to climate change and mitigate its emissions in the interest of its energy security and sustainable development, India will take further voluntary and nationally appropriate actions for addressing climate change strictly in accordance with the priorities and objectives laid down under the National Action Plan for Climate Change.
The Five Year Plans include a strategy for sustainable growth resulting in low carbon sustainable development. India has announced that, it will endeavour to reduce emission intensity of its GDP by 20 to 25 percent by 2020 in comparison to the 2005 level without reckoning emission from the agriculture sector. This will be achieved through actions in specific sectors with necessary provision of financial and technological resources including the domestic and international support. A strategy for low carbon sustainable development is being outlined with the help of Expert Group set up by the Planning Commission.
India is engaged in the international negotiations on climate change as a responsible member of the International Community. In the recent negotiations in multilateral and bilateral fora, India has articulated its position along the above lines. Indiahas also expressed its intention to do its best to contribute to a positive outcome duringCoP 16 at Cancun, Mexico in Dec 2010 and meetings preceding it as per the principles and provisions of the Convention, Kyoto Protocol and the Bali Action Plan.
Projections of Climate Change for India
Indian projections, under future climate scenarios of increased greenhouse gas conceptions indicate marked increased in both rain fall and temperature into the 21stcentury.
Climate change impacts on Indian water resources, agriculture, forestry, natural ecosystem, coastal regions, human health, energy, industry and infrastructure sectors were estimated using existing capabilities under the aegis of India’s Initial National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. These studies are an initial attempt to estimate national vulnerability to climate change capturingIndia’s high regional and sector variability in levels of social and economic development.
Impacts of Climate Change on Various Sectors
Water Resources: It is projected that quantity of surface run off due to climate change would vary across the river basins as well as sub basins of major rivers. However, there is a general reduction in the quantity of the available run off.
Forestry and Natural Ecosystems: The emerging results of analysis of impacts of climate change on forest biomes in India seem to be highly vulnerable to the projected change in climate. Majority of the vegetation in India is likely to be less optimally adapted to its existing location and consequently vulnerable to the adverse climatic changes. Biodiversity is also likely to be adversely impacted due to this.
Human health: Increase in temperature is projected to enhance the occurrence and spread on vector borne diseases such as Malaria. Malaria incidences are directly linked to the generation of vectors which are sensitive to temperature, precipitation and humidity conditions. In the climate change context, more states may offer climate opportunities for malaria vector breeding throughout the year. These opportunities are projected to increase by 3-5 months in northern states and may reduce by 2-3 months in the southern states.
Infrastructure: Large infrastructure such as dams, roads, bridges incurring high costs of construction are vulnerable to extreme events like cyclones, heavy rains, landslides and floods, which may increase in the later half of the century due to climate change. At that time, the currently commissioned infrastructure having lived its normal life span would be more vulnerable to these recurrent events.
Coastal Zones: The holistic data of sea level reveals a high variability along the Indian coast line with an increase along the Gulf of Kutchh and West Bengal coast line and decrease along Karnataka coast. The observations indicate a long term average rising end of 1 mm/year in sea level and a projection of rise in sea level in the range of 46-59 cm by the end of twenty first century. The result of a preliminary assessment indicates the vulnerability of Indian coast lines due to sea level rise, Tectonic movement, prevalenthydrography and physiography.
Agriculture: Gaseous emissions and climate change can adversely affect agriculture inIndia. While high CO2 can result in growth and increase in plant biomass, high ambient temperature resulting from increased emission can reduce the crop yields. Studies indicate that effect of increased temperature can substantially reduce yields of cereals apart from affecting their quality. Secondary impact of changed pest and disease scenario can further complicate the crop yield situation. Variable impacts of climate change on agriculture have been projected. For instance, increase in CO2 concentration, increase in temperature and variable distribution of rainfall show a mixed projection of yields of various crops across regions. No definite trends have yet been established.
