From our man in Kiev:

There is some very good news, but there is also some very bad news:

The Good News:

We saw some very important reforms passed in the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) on Saturday morning, including elections at the end of May and a return to the 2004 Constitution.

MPs & regional officials from former President Viktor Yanukovych’s Party of Regions are resigning enmasse. The SBU has opened criminal cases against the head of Kharkiv Oblast and others for their seditious statements calling for the division of the country.

Yanukovych’s opulent residence Mezhihirya has been opened to the public and journalists have discovered thousands of documents verifying the rampant corruption of his administration and the illegal activities he engaged in as president.  Parliament has passed legislation to return the compound to the people of Ukraine.  Yanukovych attempted to flee the country, but his unscheduled chartered flight out of Donesk was prevented from taking off by the Ukrainian Border Police. He left the airport with his entourage and has not been seen since.

The Bad News:

Yulia Tymoshenko, who was released from prison last night, is THE critical player to watch.

She is a very polarizing figure in Ukraine – loved by many, but disliked and regarded with suspicion but just as many.

Her imprisonment 3 years ago may have been a politically motivated act of selective justice, but that does not mean she’s innocent.

Many see the gas deal she made with the Russians as Prime Minister as having contributed greatly to Ukraine’s huge financial mess, while she is rumored to have made millions in kickbacks on the deal. She is also closely associated with Pavlo Lazarenko, a former Prime Minister who in August 2006 was convicted and sentenced to prison in the United States for money laundering, wire fraud and extortion.

Some insiders here believe Putin decided to dump Yanukovych 2 days ago and will support Yulia Tymoshenko instead. The two have long had close dealings via Viktor Medvechuk, the strongest of the pro-Russian oligarchs.

There is a more general reality here that must be understood in the context of recent events: with the exception of Vitaly Klichko, the Ukrainian political opposition leaders are believed by most ordinary Ukrainians to be only somewhat less corrupt than the president and his party – although pro-western in orientation and hardly the barbaric cave men they seek to replace.

They are viewed with suspicion by average Ukrainians and it would be incorrect to assume they represent a majority of the protesters.

This is a people’s revolt against cronyism and corruption.

Current  Political Situation:

As the only functioning government body, the Rada (Parliament) has set May 25 for the next presidential election.

Oleksandr Turchynov, who was named Speaker of the Rada just yesterday, will serve as interim president following the dismissal of President Viktor Yanukovych. He is a close ally of Yulia Tymoshenko.

During the next few days, The Rada will hold an internal election for Acting Prime Minister of an interim government. There are currently 2 candidates for the position: Independent MP Petro Poroshenko, a pro-western oligarch and businessman who stood by the protesters from the beginning; and MP Arsiny Yatsenyuk, a former head of the Central Bank who became leader of the opposition Batkivshchyna Party following Tymoshenko’s imprisonment.  Yulia Tymoshenko’s name was floated by an MP from her party as a possible third candidate for PM, but today she withdrew her name from consideration. It is widely believed that she will run for President later this year. The fact that Vitaly Klitchko isn’t in the mix confirms that he will keep his plans to run for president even if it means having Tymoshenko as his opponent.

Parliamentary elections will probably occur in September.

Several leaders of the Maidan protest groups have already issued statements AGAINST the new parliamentary majority for issuing decrees, making appointments and passing new laws without any serious discussion or debate. Tymoshenko’s party, Batkivshchyna, is the largest of the 3 major opposition parties in Parliament and they are essentially running the show at the moment. Again, this is a people’s revolt and the people are wary of opposition political leaders, especially Tymoshenko.  Although there has been some progress in stabilizing key national institutions, matters are far from settled and the situation remains fluid.

Russia’s response to current events has been muted thus far, but I very much doubt that Putin has played his last card.

The Crimea and the East

The Eastern Oblasts (Regions) of Crimea and Kharkiv should be watched closely.

Separatist/pro-Russian sentiment is very strong in these regions and the Russian Black Sea Fleet is based in the port of Sevastopol. Sevastopol, in particular, holds great strategic importance for Russia due to the direct access it provides to the Mediterranean Sea.

Here’s what I do know for certain:

1) Sources in Russia have confirmed that Russian Special Forces Units are still on high alert.

2) Valentyn Nalyvaichenko is the newly appointed head of the Security Services of Ukraine, known as the SBU.  He held the same post under ex-President Viktor Yanukovych.  Nalyvaichenko is a Ukrainian patriot and he will work hard to ensure the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

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