Uncertainty is not Justification for Inaction
In Missouri, temperatures are projected to rise 3-7ºF by the century’s close. Montanan temperatures have risen by 3ºF since the mid-20th century and are expected to increase another 6-7.5ºF by the middle of this century. Across the country, Maine’s sea levels are projected to rise by at least one foot by 2100–sea levels are estimated to rise at least 15 inches off the coast of Alabama.
The inability to pinpoint an exact temperature increase, or the inability to say with certainty just how inundated our coasts will be, and when, is an unacceptable justification for inaction.
Favoring action to cut greenhouse emissions doesn’t require absolute certainty about climate sensitivity, though. Even if the science is less sound than the climate community deems it, the probability that the modeling is basically accurate is still high enough and the likely consequences of inaction are still unacceptable enough to warrant serious concern.
The fact is, whether temperatures increase by 3ºF or 7.5ºF, its effects will be noticeable. Climate change will affect our coastal populations and tourist destinations; it will affect our profitable industries; and, it will affect many, many livelihoods across our expansive country.
The Economist says it well:
The doubters are right that uncertainties are rife in climate science. They are wrong when they present that as a reason for inaction.
