Stalemate in Our War on Terror
Source: Homeland Security Today, 5/27/2011
ASP Senior Fellow Bernard Finel provides his thoughts on the “war on terror,” following the release of the “Are We Winning?” 2010 report.
By: Bernard Finel
Think of the “war on terror” as a ledger. Considering the issue holistically, what is the implication of the death of Osama Bin Laden?
The killing of Bin Laden may yet be seen as a major turning point in the “war on terror,” but it is more likely to be remembered as a tactical success with little strategic consequence. The United States is now in the tenth year of the “war on terror,” and perhaps the best word to describe the situation is … stalemate.
The United States has built a strong international coalition to combat the threat of Islamist terrorism. It has modernized it own laws and governmental institutions while promoting effective international cooperation on tracking and limiting terrorist financing and information sharing. These positive developments are visible on a regular basis in the form of disrupted plots both at home and abroad.
Unfortunately, the threat remains resilient. Islamist violence is at an all-time high, driven by potent Islamist movements in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen. Bin Laden’s death may prove to be a death knell for “Al Qaeda Central,” which, by most indications, was increasingly moribund over the past several years, but the past 18-24 months have seen a new proliferation of Al Qaeda-style groups – transnational, violent, and anti-American – with only limited ties to the pre-2001 generation of leaders.
Worse, the continued frustration with the slow pace of progress in Afghanistan, and Pakistan’s mixed record in regard to radical Islamists on its soil, has prompted an increased emphasis on air power – notably drone air strikes – that often cause civilian casualties and are increasingly being used against “foot soldiers” rather than senior leaders.
At home, a decade of conflict has begun to erode public patience, opening the door for demagoguery and extremism as seen in the backlash against efforts to use civilian courts to hold terrorists criminally accountable for their actions, and in the failure of the Obama administration to secure support to close the prison at Guantanamo Bay…
