The Atlantic — Joshua Foust: Kyrgyzstan’s Promising but Uncertain Political Future
Source: The Atlantic, 12/2/2011
Fellow Joshua Foust writes about the future of Kyrgyzstan, including U.S. basing rights.
Today Kyrgyzstan inaugurated Almazbek Atambaev as their new president. It was a momentous event, the first peaceful transition of power in Central Asia. Unfortunately, Atambaev is inheriting a country with a troubled recent past and an uncertain future, including how it will relate to the United States.
Outgoing President Roza Otunbaeva recently apologized for “failing to prevent” last year’s ethic bloodshed, which killed hundreds of people, torched thousands of buildings, and left an ethnic minority dispossessed and marginalized. She is right to apologize: though understandably distracted by the on-going fallout of Kyrgyzstan’s April Revolution, less than two months before, the riots were the result of a buildup of ethnic tension and local government depredation that she was obligated, as president, to address. Her response was so impotent she publicly contemplatedseeking Russian help in establishing the peace in Osh.
While Otunbaeva’s handling of the ethnic riots last year was disappointing, she did usher in a new constitution and spearhead the current orderly transition of power. This should not be downplayed. Despite October’s Presidential election’s obvious flaws, establishing a precedent for an orderly transition is a huge accomplishment and deserves praise.
But where Kyrgyzstan can go from here is uncertain. The ethnic divide that erupted last year remains, and despite Atambaev’s pledge for ethnic unity no one knows if he has the charisma and political capital to begin addressing those divides. Krygyzstan faces numerous other challenges as well: a stagnating economy, pervasive corruption, and an uncertain regional orientation — from the lively debate over whether Bishkek is swinging toward Russia or China to the bigger questions about its trade arrangements, position along The New Silk Road, and its struggles with narcotics trafficking.
