NASA model of Defense Meteorological Satellite Program satellite.
Maintaining a Functional Meteorological Satellite Program for National Defense
Every military mission revolves around weather data. 24/7 global forecasts are critical to determining maneuvers, operations, and ultimately—mission success or failure. The primary source of this critical data is the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). DMSP operates complementary to NOAA satellites. DMSP is responsible for providing the military with important environmental data, supporting NOAA’s operational forecasts, especially in polar regions, and conducting environmental monitoring and prediction. DMSP has been the primary source of military weather data since 1962 and is critical to U.S. defense against near-peer adversaries such as China and Russia. The U.S. lacks a clear technological advantage over these adversaries, making intelligence collection and obtaining an informational advantage critical. The DMSP is one tool with which the U.S. can gain a vital informational advantage over near-peer adversaries through infrared imaging, microwave sensing, and operational linescan system capabilities. Yet, DMSP updates have been historically neglected by the Department of Defense (DoD), putting the nation’s security at risk.
DMSP is overseen by the Space Systems Command (SSC) at Los Angeles Air Force Base and launches from Vandenberg Space Force Base. SSC recognizes the critical nature of weather data to military operations, specifically for flight routes, combat search and rescue, maritime surface tracking, enemy missile tracking, and all intelligence and reconnaissance capabilities. The DMSP also makes a significant scientific contribution to the study of global climate change because of its ability to monitor oceanographic and hydrologic environments. This climatological information is indispensable as the military prepares to combat the threat multiplier of climate change. The loss of these numerous DMSP capabilities would cause large scale disruption of current DoD missions, inhibit future strategic planning, and lead to potentially dangerous situations for pilots, sailors, and ground forces alike. With numerous reports claiming that the current DMSP satellites could become inoperable as early as this year, the U.S. Space Force (USSF) may leave the joint force without critical weather data.
The informational advantage the DMSP provides further underscores the importance of the program. In addition to weather data, DMSP satellites can be used to gain military and civilian intelligence in adversarial countries around the world, through the satellite’s Operational Linescan System. This monitoring capability can be used to track infrastructure build up in the South China Sea or industrial regions within China and Russia. DMSP also strengthens American security through enemy missile observation capabilities, detecting changes in the ionosphere, and deterring adversarial experimentation of space-based weapons systems.
Despite the significant data collection capabilities of the DMSP, DoD has failed to implement vital updates to the program. DMSP has been operating without any major updates since the 1960s, crowning it as the nation’s longest running production satellite program. For over seven years these satellites have been dangerously close to their estimated end of life. The newest of the four currently operational satellites was launched in 2009 and the oldest has been operating since 1999. A refurbished model of an older DMSP design was launched in 2014 to extend the life of the program, but experienced a power failure two years later, and is no longer operational. Multiple failures to update the DMSP system have placed the DoD in a precarious position where the current satellites could putter out before replacements are launched.
The potential replacement for the DMSP satellite program was split into two satellite systems; one system to focus on microwave sensing and the second on visible/infrared imaging. Orion Space Solutions and General Atomics were awarded the imaging contracts and each will produce a prototype designed to partially replace the DMSP. The Orion prototype was launched in early 2023, which met a mandate from the House. The mandate was part of concerns over the Department of the Air Force’s weather instrument acquisitions, which were noted in the 2020 defense spending bill. Meanwhile, the Orion satellite is currently completing a one-year demonstration program, while the General Atomics prototype will not be delivered until 2025. Additionally, Ball Aerospace was granted the microwaving sensing contract, and is excepted to launch its satellite in 2024. These projected launch dates, in comparison with estimates of the current DMSP lifespan, do not ensure continuous availability of data, creating a vulnerability in the next two to five years. To mitigate this risk, the Air Force has contracted with Tommorrow.io, which markets itself as a weather intelligence company, to procure weather data as part of the services Strategic Funding Increase program.
Even if all planned DMSP replacement projects launch on time without issue, the ability to continuously access critical meteorological data will be at risk for the next two to four years. In turn, this could create an information disadvantage against near-peer adversaries. A lack of weather data leaves every mission vulnerable and will hinder the warfighting ability of the United States against near-peer adversaries. The safety and overall capabilities of our stealth bombers and other air assets are rendered useless if they unexpectedly encounter high-altitude atmospheric ice or other conditions monitored by the DMSP. U.S. naval, ground, and air force forces rely on DMSP data to protect their people and capabilities. Updating the aging DMSP systems must be prioritized by military and civilian leaders to prevent a lapse in metrological data and intelligence.
