A Chinese Han class nuclear-powered attack submarine. Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons
Why the Loss of One Advanced Chinese Submarine Matters
On September 26th, 2024, The Wall Street Journal announced that the first ship in China’s new class of nuclear-powered attack submarines sank at a shipyard near Wuhan earlier that summer. Although it is uncertain whether the submarine was actually powered by nuclear or conventional engines, the loss of this single advanced vessel could pose significant challenges to Chinese naval development, thus hindering the country’s capabilities in a way that could render it more difficult to succeed against the United States in a conflict over Taiwan.
A Pentagon report from 2023 notes that China aims to deploy more attack submarines and other naval vehicles in order to invade Taiwan and establish naval superiority in the region extending from Japan to the South China Sea. Presently, the Chinese navy has six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, six nuclear-powered attack submarines, and 28 diesel-electric attack submarines, with the total number expected to grow to 65 by 2025. The vessel that sank was allegedly the first in the Chinese Zhou class of partially nuclear-powered attack submarines, meaning that it ran on both nuclear and diesel-electric fuel.
Regardless of whether this particular submarine ran on nuclear power, the loss of just one of these new vessels is significant for multiple reasons. For one, it raises questions about Chinese industrial capabilities and internal accountability, and given the corruption within the defense industry as a whole, creates concerns about the quality of equipment. As a result of corruption, the quality of goods, in this case submarines and other ships, can be compromised when funds dedicated to the design and construction of these vessels are siphoned off through embezzlement. Likewise, the sinking could reflect a lack of experience in leadership, as well as at the operational and technical levels, thus further impacting ship quality.
Additionally, losing a more modern submarine, even one that does not possess nuclear engines, could have strategic consequences for China. There would be doubts about keeping up the pace of fleet expansion, given that China invests significant resources to build its submarines. A lack of sufficient modern tactical vessels due to a design flaw or incompetence could ultimately result in a strategic loss if the Chinese navy is unable to field enough combat strength in time, or if those vessels are easily destroyed in a naval conflict. While China’s significant shipbuilding industry can quickly fix damaged ships, the sinking of one of its new submarines may have identified flaws that potentially stunt China’s ability to build an even larger naval fleet capable of effectively combating the United States.
With the loss of even a single advanced Chinese submarine, the United States would have a greater chance of maintaining an advantage in naval combat against China should a conflict over Taiwan come to fruition sooner rather than later. According to defense analyst and former submariner Tom Shugart, this specific submarine featured a unique X-shaped stern, which increases maneuverability. Furthermore, the possibility that it could have been nuclear-powered as opposed to diesel-electric powered means that it could also operate at a faster speed for a longer duration of time underwater and had a silent propulsion system. These factors would put American forces at greater risk, since they enable the submarine to quietly operate underwater from a further distance, thus making it difficult to track and more challenging for the U.S. Navy to evade ambushes. However, with this submarine out of the picture, the Navy would be at a lower risk of facing Chinese sneak attacks, especially given China’s current lack of overall modern naval capabilities. This would also mean that the United States has fewer high-priority threats and targets to contend with. Likewise, having to contend with fewer stealthy subs, the Navy would be more likely to reach the warzone quicker and at full combat strength. This could ultimately result in a U.S. strategic advantage if the Chinese are unable to field a force that is physically capable of countering an American reaction force coming to Taiwan’s aid.
Ultimately, while it is not a critical event in and of itself, the loss of a single advanced Chinese submarine could provide major considerations for a future combat scenario between the United States and China. Undoubtedly, determining this particular incident’s cause in order to better understand its potential strategic implications for a future conflict interests both U.S. and Chinese officials. Ideally, the United States should use the lessons learned from this incident in order to pinpoint weaknesses in China’s naval capabilities to further cement the U.S. Navy’s ability to prevail in a potential conflict.
