Heading for Disaster With Iran
Iran tests long-range missile, raises ire of West – washingtonpost.com
Iran on Wednesday test-fired an upgraded version of its most advanced missile, which is capable of hitting Israel and parts of Europe, in a new show of strength aimed at preventing any military strike against it amid the nuclear standoff with the West.
Well, we can’t blame Bush anymore for the tension with Iran. We’ve reached out to them. Offering entry into a international fuel-cycle regime with enrichment in Russia and Iranian uranium held in escrow in Turkey was a good-faith effort at bringing Iran into compliance with its international obligations. They wouldn’t bite.
Gary Sick argues we should redouble our diplomatic efforts:
The US and Iran: It’s all in the game – The National Newspaper
At that point, the United States and its partners could have responded with a counter-offer that would, for example, sequester the Iranian LEU under strict safeguards until the replacement fuel cells were available, thus accomplishing most, if not all, of their original objectives. Instead, they ended all negotiations and introduced a sharply critical resolution by the International Atomic Energy Agency board.
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Is the United States really going to proceed with Iran on the basis of a sanctions policy that has consistently failed?
Actually, sanctions have not consistently failed. It is a common argument, but no more accurate for the repetition. In fact, since the “sanctions don’t work” argument became common in the 1980s, we’ve had a number of significant successes. Sanctions changed South African policy regarding apartheid, they changed Libyan policy vis-a-vis WMD, the largely disarmed Saddam, and sanctions helped drive Slobodan Milosevic from power in Serbia. They can work.
That said, they take years, and the Iranian leaders are spoiling for a fight to disarm domestic protests. It is just a very, very bad dynamic, and at this point, I’m not sure there is a good way forward.
In the short-run, a strong sanctions regime is the best bet, but Iranian threats and bluster are a real challenge. And as involved as we are in the region, we can’t afford to ignore them in the same way we’ve (wisely) chosen to ignore Hugo Chavez’s antic in Venezuela.
