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Tide is Turning?

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Afghanistan: General Stanley McChrystal Tells Diane Sawyer Surge Blunted Taliban – ABC News

“We’ve been at this for about seven months now and I believe we’ve made progress. It’s not a completed mission yet,” he said.

McChrystal cited as evidence a meeting he recently held in a river valley in Helmand province, an area where the Taliban has been strong and was one of the first targets of the American surge.

“When I sit in an area that the Taliban controlled only seven months ago and now you meet with a shura of elders and they describe with considerable optimism the future, you sense the tide is turning,” he said.

The challenge, of course, isn’t clearing territory and then holding a meeting.  It will be a long time before we have any sense of whether the insurgency has actually been constrained in a meaningful way.  Clearly, the concept of momentum has some utility, and creating the impression that we are “winning” is probably a significant goal of the surge.  But given the fact that we have not “surged” many of our forces yet, the whole story strikes me as IO. A couple of months ago, we needed an extra 30,000 men urgently.  Now, before those forces have even arrived, we’ve turned the tide.  How does that make sense?