Tensions in India and Pakistan Could Lead to Regional Instability
Groups under Al-Qaeda’s ‘syndicate’ in Afghanistan and Pakistan are trying ‘to destabilise not just Afghanistan, not just Pakistan, but potentially the whole region by provoking a conflict perhaps between India and Pakistan through some provocative act.’
– Secretary Robert Gates, New Delhi, January 20, 2010
It was just over a year ago that India demonstrated its capacity for restraint following the attack in Mumbai at the hands of Pakistani Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). ‘”I think it’s not unreasonable to assume India [sic] patience would be limited were there to be further attacks,'” Secretary Gates continued during his conversation with reporters in New Delhi on Wednesday.
Gates is certainly not the only one to recognize and shed light on the room for and potential fallout from a similar terrorist attack. Only a month ago, Secretary Hillary Clinton testified similarly alongside her Defense Department counterpart in front of Congress. The academic world has expressed the same concerns. Recently, Daniel Markey at the Council on Foreign relations wrote:
Al-Qaeda has historically focused its efforts outside India, but if the group’s leadership feels threatened in the Pakistan Afghanistan border areas, it might direct and assist regional proxies to attack India as a way to ignite a distracting Indo-Pakistani confrontation.
Especially disconcerting are the amply stocked nuclear arsenals of both countries. “‘The worst-case scenarios in Pakistan are worse than anywhere else,'” American Security’s Project’s Bernard Finel told the Boston Globe last May. Were there to be another attack on Indian soil volatility in the region would undoubtedly soar.
