Preview of Things to Come in the Iraq Election
By: Lauren Farber
If all goes according to plan, the 2010 Iraqi Parliamentary elections will take place on March 7th. Elections were previously scheduled to be held in January, but Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi forced a delay by vetoing the election law in November 2009. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s State of Law party is expected to win a plurality of the 325 seats currently up for grabs, but the lead-up to the election has been mired in controversy and growing sectarian tension.
This tension very nearly boiled over into an electoral crisis with the disqualification of over 500 candidates accused of having a connection to Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party. This decision would appear to be an attempt to extend the efforts toward de-Baathification of the Iraqi government, but without any constitutional justification. Instead, the removal of these candidates has served to fuel the argument that Shiite Iraqis are attempting to block Sunnis from participating in the legislative process. Among those candidates barred from participating is Saleh al-Mutlaq, who was in the number two slot on the ballot for the secular Sunni-Shia coalition partym, Iraqiya. Al-Mutlaq and former Sunni Prime Minister Ayad Al-Allawi are allied in the party, and Al-Allawi has warned that this decision would mobilize those seeking to exploit sectarian tensions.
Further threatening the vote is the increase in violence that has been observed in the days leading up to the election and even during early voting sessions for security forces. Iraqi soldiers and police officers were granted a brief reprieve in order to cast their ballots so that they can be out in full force on Sunday to fend off threats vowed by sectarian groups seeking to derail the process. Baquba, a city north of Baghdad that continues to serve as a setting for clashes between Sunni insurgents and US forces, was host to multiple suicide attacks on March 3rd and 4th with a total of over 70 casualties. Despite the pervasive threats against voting stations and voters, Iraqi policemen have vowed to see the election through, saying “Even if they hit a polling station somewhere we will have it open within 30 minutes and people will continue to vote.”
It is important to remember that politics in Iraq do not exist in isolation from the Iranian regime, particularly due to the belief by Iraqi Sunnis that they are being marginalized by the Shiites. According to Gen. Ray Odierno, two of the individuals responsible for blocking Parliamentary candidates are closely linked to Iran. One of these men, Ahmed Chalabi, previously served as a key source for the Bush Administration in the months preceding the 2003 invasion but is considered to have supplied false information. Sunnis in Iraq fear the possibility of a Shia-led Parliament being unduly influenced by the overwhelmingly Shiite Islamic Republic of Iran.
There are of course concerns about voter fraud and polling irregularities that are often overshadowed by security fears. It is no small accomplishment for Iraqis to be participating in the electoral process, despite its imperfections. US Ambassador to Iraq Christopher Hill succinctly summed up the 2010 elections, saying “The real test of democracy is not so much the behavior of the winners; it will be the behavior of the losers.”
