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U.S. Energy Policy Adrift

U.S. Energy Policy Adrift

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Dating back to Richard Nixon, every U.S. President has vowed to achieve energy independence but our dependence on imported oil steadily grew over the last four decades. Since 2005, however, oil imports as a share of consumption declined from a peak of 60% to 45% in 2011. The decreased reliance on imported oil is a result of increased domestic oil production and a decline in consumption from the economic downturn and a moderate increase in fuel efficiency.

But, increased oil production has not shielded American consumers from experiencing pain at the pump. Since we compete in a globalized market, American gas prices are tied to the world market price for oil. Incremental increases in oil production do not significantly lower retail gasoline prices.

Additionally, although U.S. oil imports have fallen since 2005, our total oil import bill has increased because of higher global oil prices. Economic analyses have shown that an estimated $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil can translate to a decline in GDP of 0.2% and 120,000 fewer jobs.

According to the EIA, for the month of February (the most recent month for which data is available), U.S. petroleum liquids production, which includes crude oil and other petroleum products, reached 10.76 million barrels per day, the highest level in over a decade.

Despite the increased production, the oil markets have recently demonstrated their vulnerability to price spikes. Low spare capacity has resulted because oil production has not kept up with oil demand, which is at an all-time high. With low spare capacity, geopolitical events from around the globe– the uprising in Libya in 2011 and tensions with Iran in 2012 – can result in a rapid surge in oil prices, inflicting an economic toll on the American public.

To truly reduce pain at the pump, America needs to reduce its consumption of oil, which would have a greater impact than boosting domestic production. There are sensible policies that could achieve this goal, which would improve our economy and reduce our exposure to oil price fluctuations.

However, policy initiatives that have been promoted by members of Congress in recent years have been short-sighted. In 2008, high oil prices resulted in calls for a “gas-tax holiday,” which would have done little to improve energy security. Similarly, in 2011 and 2012, a rise in oil prices was accompanied by attacks on environmental regulation and a slow permitting process.

Recent bills emerging from Congress do not offer reasons for optimism. The House GOP is set to unveil an energy plan that focuses on removing obstacles to oil and gas drilling and delaying EPA rules. But, increasing oil production will only marginally affect world oil prices, and in any event, will be overwhelmed in the long-term by the rapid increase in oil demand from emerging economies like China and India.

For their part, the Democrats called for a release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in February, a move that should only be used for addressing a short-term supply shock. High oil prices do not meet this standard. President Obama has also attacked speculators for price run-ups. To the extent oil speculators affect the world oil price, they merely reflect expectations of future supply and demand, and attempts to curtail speculation will do little to address underlying fundamentals.

Instead, in order to insulate American consumers from oil price fluctuations, the U.S. needs to focus on reducing domestic oil demand. The administration’s deal with automakers to increase corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards from 34.6 miles per gallon (mpg) in 2016 to 54.2 mpg by 2025 is an excellent, but rare, example of this vision. Unfortunately, most other policy initiatives emanating from Washington demonstrate that U.S. energy policy is seriously adrift.

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