Update: Now what, Egypt?
Runoff elections for the Presidency in Egypt were held over the weekend despite a declaration by the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) awarding itself broad authority over the nation’s political, economic, and security affairs.
The Presidency has been contested between Ahmed Shafiq, a protégé of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood. Early reports from the polling indicate a win for the Muslim Brotherhood. Morsi declared victory early Monday morning, but Shafiq has refused to concede, arguing that ballots from the nation’s population center in Cairo had yet to be tallied.
SCAF has promised to relinquish power to the elected President, despite reports to the contrary. However, as an official confirmation of the results is not expected until Wednesday at the earliest, it is unlikely any power transition will occur beforehand. Even upon a handover, the Egyptian Presidency has effectively been stripped of any power due to last week’s military decrees of legislative authority, which dissolved the elected Parliament and allowed SCAF to appoint a 100-person assembly to draft a new constitution leaving the army firmly in control of Egypt’s governmental affairs.
The US is monitoring developments in Egypt as the outcome of the elections will impact US-Egypt relations, as well as Egypt’s relations with Israel. The nation has also been a stable US ally in the region, and there are concerns that Muslim Brotherhood leadership will result in a more fundamentalist regime, inhibiting cooperative action and resulting in cooler external relations. In addition, any instability arising from a popular backlash against the new regime will contribute to an overall worsening of the security situation in the MENA region, which is currently plagued by conflicts in Syria, tensions in Iran, and terrorist activity emanating from several hubs throughout.
The Egyptian transition may also be seen as a referendum on the Arab Spring. Egypt is among the more consolidated nations to undertake democratization, and its ability to implement a democratic transition speaks to the capacity of other nations to do the same.
The political turmoil in Egypt has prompted a call from Senator Patrick Leahy to suspend all disbursements of military aid to Egypt until SCAF can commit to and implement a democratic transition. Egypt has long been the second-largest aid recipient from the US, with approximately US$1.3 billion in military aid designated for the nation in 2012.
For an overview of recent events in Egypt, please see previous posts on the first round of Presidential elections and SCAF’s soft coup. ASP is closely following the developments in Egypt’s transition; be sure to check back in the coming days.
