The Nuke Review: June 11 – June 17
The Nuke Review: June 11 – June 17
June 11th
Iran’s military denied IAEA allegations that it demolished buildings to cover up nuclear testing at the Parchin military site. Iranian Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi called the charges “irrelevant and unwise” and stated that they were an attempt to affect the upcoming P5+1 talks in Moscow.
Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili stated that Iran prepared to scale down its nuclear program. In a phone conversation with Catherine Ashton, the EU’s chief diplomat for the P5+1 negotiations, Jalili commented that Iran was ready to “engage on the proposal” for Iran to halt its enrichment programs and export its supply of 20 percent-enriched uranium.
June 12th
Turkey announces that it has no plans to share radar information from the NATO station in Kuracik with Israel. Turkish Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz stated, “[The] early warning system is a component of the NATO defense system. The anti-defense missile system will be distributed among the allies and used for their defense, according to the NATO Charter. Hence there can be no discussions on providing the non-NATO member Israel with information.” The statement was given in regards to the station’s use during the upcoming U.S.-Israeli exercises.
Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya’alon comments that Israel will not be content until Iran abandons its uranium enrichment program. He stated, “One way or another, the nuclear program must be stopped, and not necessarily by war . . . that would be the last move.”
Iranian Fars News Agency reports that Iran has begun working on nuclear submarine. Deputy navy chief, Admiral Abbas Zamini, was quoted as stating that the “initial stages” of design have begun and that Iran has the capability and right to build a nuclear powered submarine.
The United Kingdom plans deep military cuts as part of its current austerity measures. The plan for an 8 percent cut in the $58 million annual defense spending will entail reductions in personnel and retiring a fleet of jets, an aircraft carrier, and 40 nuclear warheads.
U.S. official suggests utilizing social media to assist in global nonproliferation efforts. Undersecretary of State Rose Gottemoeller commented that, “We may be able to mine Twitter data to understand where strange effluents are flowing, to recognize if a country has an illegal chemical weapons program; or to recognize unexpected patterns of industrial activity at a missile production plant. In this way, we may be able to ensure better compliance with existing arms control treaties and regimes such as the Chemical Weapons Convention.”
June 13th
U.S. Senator does not take issue with South Korea developing longer-range ballistic missiles. Sen. Carl Levin, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, stated that improvements in South Korean missile capabilities were acceptable if they are deployed in a “defensive and non-threatening” way. Under a 2001 agreement with the U.S., South Korea is restricted from possessing ballistic missiles with a range greater than 300 km and payload more than 500 kg. However, South Korean conservatives are calling to extend their ballistic missile capabilities to cover all of North Korea.
U.N. Security Council extended the mandate of expert panel to review possible sanction breaches by North Korea. The extension gives the panel an additional year to analyze possible incidents of North Korean noncompliance with U.N. Resolution 1718 (2006). The resolution, passed following North Korea’s first nuclear test, prohibits the export of missiles, missile parts, and materials, equipment, and technology that could contribute to nuclear-related, ballistic missile-related or other WMD programs.
The IAEA’s capability to detect clandestine nuclear activities is restricted by lack of funding. Trevor Findlay, former Australian arms control envoy and current scholar at Carleton University, contended that the IAEA “is significantly underfunded considering its responsibilities and the expectations increasingly being placed on it.” According to the Center for International Governance Innovation, the agency lacks available equipment and personnel to fulfill its responsibilities.
German and Italian officials warn Congress against cutting funds for MEADS. MEADS is a next generation ground-based terminal-phase missile defense system meant to replace the aging Hawk and Patriot systems worldwide. However, both the House and Senate versions of the NDAA have denied the $400 million requested to finish the program. Germany and Italy fear not only wasting millions of already invested euros, but the impact this will have on transatlantic collaboration and cooperation. Italian Defense Minister Giampaolo Di Paolo stated, “We hope and expect that the United States would live up to its (Memorandum of Understanding) commitment.”
June 14th
Russia meets with Iran ahead of next P5+1 talks. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov flew to Tehran to meet with his counterpart Ali Akbar Salehi to discuss the upcoming talks. Lavrov reconfirmed Russia’s opposition to unilateral sanctions and stated that, “The Iranian side is interested in coming up with solutions which would contribute to the settlement for the nuclear issue.”
Senator Carl Levin stated that spending on the U.S. nuclear arsenal is “ripe for cuts.” Sen. Carl Levin, chairman of the SASC, noted that federal budget savings could be found by reducing funds dedicated to the life-extension programs and servicing of U.S. nuclear weapons and their systems.
Russia plans response to European missile shield. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that he would prefer for the U.S. missile defense plans to be changed, but that Russia will provide an adequate response to its deployment. Putin commented further that western political rhetoric regarding the missile defense plans “remains a part of the arms race.”
Future of U.K. nuclear submarine base in Faslane, Scotland unclear. The Scottish National Party (SNP) hopes for a referendum on succession from the U.K. as early as 2014. The Party has made it clear that an independent Scotland would remove all nuclear weapons from the submarine base at Faslane and convert the facility into conventional naval base. While British officials have stated that they plan to retain control over the facility, the SNP has publically rejected this idea.
The U.K. continues support for NNSA’s nonproliferation efforts. The U.K. announced that it will continue to work with the NNSA’s Office of Global Threat Reduction to secure vulnerable nuclear and radiological material and reduce nuclear threats worldwide. Under the new agreement, the U.K.’s Threat Reduction Programme will provide $3.5 million to support nonproliferation efforts in Uzbekistan, Belarus, and Afghanistan.
The U.S. Air Force revisits the idea of a mobile ballistic missile launcher. According to Jeffrey Lewis, the US Air Force is considering bringing back mobile basing in its “Analysis of Alternatives for a Minuteman Follow-on”. USAF is now spending $21 million in FY2013-2014 to complete the ”Ground Based Strategic Deterrence Analysis of Alternatives”, presumably including options for mobile ballistic missile defenses.
June 15
Senator Carl Levin calls House’s request for East Coast missile defense “a replay of an old Car War debate.” Sen. Carl Levin stated that there is no military need for an east coast GMD site. He also stated that he expects the matter “will be one of the big issues when we get to conference.”
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged Kim Jong-un to chart a new course for North Korea. In a statement following a meeting with South Korean officials, Secretary Clinton commented that, “This young man, should he make a choice that would help bring North Korea into the 21st century, could go down in history as a transformative leader.
