Global Climate Change Adaptation: Key to U.S. Security
The Defense Science Board Task Force’s October 2011 report “Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security” calls on the entire national security community to address and account for climate change risks in its operations and objectives. As Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.) warned yesterday morning in a major address on the Senate floor, “catastrophic climate change is knocking at our door.” With such admonitions in mind, the Defense Science Board (DSB) analyzed climate change as a national and international security threat focusing heavily on Africa where especially vulnerable nations have high potential for conflict and political instability.
While recognizing the inherent uncertainties of climate change, the DSB acknowledges the need to adapt to both near and long-term impacts of climate change that, in fact, have been observed and measured. As such, the DSB’s recommendations stress the importance of managing climate change over time rather than implementing a “quick fix” strategy. After all, carbon dioxide persists in the atmosphere for at least 50 years; therefore, even if all human activities contributing to climate change ceased today, climactic effects would linger for decades or even centuries. Adaptation efforts should be directed toward three main classes of climate change challenges: population support system resiliency (water, energy, and food security), human security (population dislocation and armed conflict), and political continuity (continuity of governance and economic viability).
Also in recognition of some of the ambiguities of climate change, the DSB calls for a more comprehensive system for monitoring the climate. Currently, the DSB believes climate models and observations exist as a lax amalgamation aimed at exploratory science instead of accurate climate assessments. Further, climate models are neither subject to verification standards, nor are they required to establish uncertainty bounds in their assessments. Hence, the DSB’s first recommendation is to improve available climate information by expanding the Roundtable for Climate Information Services and establishing an operational relationship between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that more frequently reassesses climate observations via satellites.
As a means of addressing economic and political shifts brought about by climate change, the DSB proposes that the CIA’s Center for Climate Change and Security identify regions and governments where climate change threatens to entice political upheaval or social unrest. In Africa, where water resources are becoming increasingly scarce jeopardizing farming productivity and food supplies, such intelligence is crucial to the prospect of our diplomacy with vulnerable states inclined to antagonistic U.S sentiments. Outside of recommendations to the Department of Defense, the DSB task force also suggests the adoption of climate change policies and actions to be implemented across government bodies; the provision of foreign military training and education with regards to adaptation; and conflict avoidance through foreign developmental aid.
As for the Defense Department’s role, DSB recommendations aim to address climate related issues before they reach conflict stage. To do so, Defense should accordingly establish a department-wide policy board for climate change security impacts, adaptation pilot projects in vulnerable areas of the world (most notably Africa), training exercises in climate change and risk reduction, military relationships aimed at reducing disaster risks, and an agenda for reducing vulnerability in the Arctic.
Of course, not all of the DSB’s recommendations will be seen through, nor would all the security risks of climate change be avoided if they were. But, as oceans rise, more frequent droughts entice desertification, and adverse weather events create natural disasters, national and international security threats related to these effects of climate change will become increasingly prevalent. Moreover, the scientific community is at a broad consensus that climate change is indeed happening. Hence, it is imperative that our national security strategy adapt to a rapidly changing climate. Otherwise, the U.S. may find itself with troops settling conflicts from the horn of Africa to the Arctic Ocean while simultaneously combating climactic impacts at home.
