Forget terrorism, nuclear proliferation and economic depression, the biggest threat to international peace and prosperity might just be that empty water bottle you’re holding. Last Tuesday, the InterAction Council (IAC), a group of 40 prominent former government leaders, together with the United Nations University’s Institute for Water, Environment and Health released a report detailing the emerging threat of water scarcity and urged the United Nations Security Council to take immediate action.

Source: International Water Management Institute
http://www.waternunc.com/gb/map2025.htm

The problem, as any economist can explain, is one of constant supply and increasing demand. Approximately 3,800 cubic kilometers of fresh water is extracted from aquatic ecosystems across the globe every year. With about 1 billion more mouths to feed worldwide by 2025, global agriculture alone will require another 1,000 cubic km (1 trillion cubic meters) of water per year – equal to the annual flow of 20 Niles or 100 Colorado Rivers.

The report  also outlined the dangers of existing water shortages in Sub-Saharan Africa, West Asia and North Africa, citing the political instability of those regions and how quickly conflict over water resources could escalate. Even firmly established governments will soon need to address coming water shortages; it is expected for example that water demand in China and India — the world’s two most populous countries -– will exceed supplies in less than 20 years. And it’s not just an overseas issue either.

Water shortages are not the only hydrological threat to the international system. 4,500 children die every day because of diseases related to unsafe drinking water and lack of sanitation. Some estimate that in areas like Gaza, water might be undrinkable as soon as 2016.

Climate change is likely only to worsen the problem. Extreme drought and flooding are also expected to increase as the fundamental nature of hydrology changes. The compounded effect of climate change on water pressures, overpopulation, contamination, groundwater depletion and soil loss creates conditions ripe for a “ticking hydro-climatic time bomb”, according to IAC’s senior water policy advisor Bob Sandford. These challenges, by their very nature, are transnational.

Source: United Nations Environmental Programs, http://www.businessinsider.com/15-facts-about-the-coming-water-crisis-2010-3?op=1

Although armed conflict has rarely (if ever) erupted between states for water resources, internal disputes for water can and has led to violence, destabilizing migration flows, and poverty due to loss of livelihood. Already, 1.2 billion people live in areas without adequate water supply. As the UN has noted, examples of fresh water-related conflicts usually center on water governance and management rather than water scarcity. A few examples include disputes between Israelis and Palestinians over aquifers, between Egypt and other nations sharing the Nile, or between Iran and Afghanistan over the Hirmand River.

The coming water crisis will come not in the shape of rival nations warring over contested lakes or rivers but rather in more indirect forms. Water scarcity by itself may not spark martial conflict, but along with the extra billion thirsty mouths expected in 2025 easily acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating local and regional tensions and compounding already complex geopolitical problems. Climate change will cause even more headaches for policy-makers as the world’s warmest and driest regions (North Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia) get even hotter and drier in the coming years. (see map).

Recommendations by the InterAction Council stress the need to reform our attitude about water use, improve conservation and efficiency, increase annual investment in water supply and sanitation efforts by $11 billion USD, financially reward water sustainability via a “blue economy”, and connect water security to larger issues like energy security, economic development and climate change.

The IAC’s message has found broad support across national and political boundaries including Nelson Mandela, ex-Mexican President Vicente Fox, and former U.S. President Bill Clinton. It remains to be seen however, if even such a star-studded organization can change the way the world thinks about water usage and conservation. For our own sakes, let’s certainly hope so.

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