Protesters in Saint Petersburg in February 2012

The domestic situation in Russia has continued to deteriorate in recent weeks as thousands of protesters, resilient as ever, have taken to the streets in Moscow to protest Putin’s government. Economic decline and a decrease in oil prices have also contributed to a mounting frustration, and so far the Kremlin’s response has varied. Police raids, increased fines for protest activity, and the seizure of computers have categorized some responses by authorities. The Kremlin has remained relatively silent, however, on the protests. Some experts have argued that the lack of dialogue will likely only increase the likelihood of a prolonged conflict, and has exacerbated tensions between Putin and the protestors.

The result of the turbulence in Moscow may be contributing to an insecure Putin government, and has directed his focus towards foreign policy. Despite his rather precarious domestic political situation, Putin has been traveling a great deal to confront a variety of global issues that the international community has pressed for Russian cooperation. Last week, Putin visited Beijing in an attempt to posture for a new strategic partnership with China, and has recently been visiting foreign leaders to develop a compromise on Iranian nuclear proliferation and the brutal conflict in Syria.

Recent news has focused on Secretary Clinton’s remarks regarding the possibility of Russia engaging in a proxy war by providing military attack helicopters to Syria. This assertion remains questionable and has been unconfirmed by the Department of Defense. As the acute crisis in Syria continues to grow and reports of the violence are as terrible as ever, the focus remains on Syria. Provocative rhetoric, however, is unlikely to produce cooperation from Putin and only further entrenches his Administration.

Russia, as the primary military supplier of Assad, may not actually desire a proxy war. What remains clear is that Russia still wishes to be a relevant actor in international affairs, retain a toehold in the Mediterranean, and assert influence where NATO has shown leadership for over a decade. Putin’s original popularity was partially on the basis of Russia’s soaring economic growth and its return as a global power, and he may be attempting to restore this popularity through foreign policy achievements.

The Obama administration’s Russian reset has been unsuccessful in recent years, and has failed to produce the cooperation the U.S. desires on several important issues. Yet the U.S. has also failed to develop a strategic plan for engaging the Russian public and communicating U.S. policy effectively to the Russian people. While the protests may or not result in long-term political change, they should remind people that there is an element to Russia that remains untapped.

What about a reset with the Russian people?

There has generally always been a relative mistrust of U.S. intentions by Russian leaders, but what about the Russian people?  Thousands of protestors in Moscow are feeling frustrated with Putin and speaking openly. Though public diplomacy is a long-term strategy, this is a prime opportunity for engagement with the Russian people.

Engaging the Russian people through a productive dialogue will be important in determining their foreign policy preferences to create effective foreign policy toward Russia. Most evidence indicates that the protests in Russia have been about domestic politics and the economic downturn. Russian geopolitical strategy has little to do with the frustrations in Moscow, and engaging the Russian people will be a critical step for U.S. policymakers in determining their next step on how to achieve greater Russian cooperation in the future.

The response to the precarious situation in Russia should be measured and cautionary, as a provocative strategy may cause further mistrust between the Putin government and the United States. Instead of incendiary rhetoric towards the Kremlin, the U.S. should utilize soft power and strategic language to engage the Russian people while respecting traditional diplomatic discourse.

The U.S. must seize the domestic turbulence in Moscow for constructive communication with the Russian people. While the protests may indicate a decline in Putin’s political popularity as of recent, there is still broad support for his policies in Russia. The U.S. should also understand the preferences of both the people who agree and disagree with his policies. What do Russians think about the crisis in Syria? What do they think of Iranian proliferation? Would they prefer Moscow to behave differently in foreign policy?

The Russian people are already talking. And while such communication may not produce the response Washington desires, it will gain Putin’s attention. In the long run, it may even influence Russian geopolitical foreign policy with domestic pressure. Fostering trust with Russian leaders has often been difficult, but can be improved over time through focusing on issues of agreement and finding common ground on those of disagreement. The Russian people, however, have largely been ignored in the Russian reset and public diplomacy may be effective in developing desirable cooperative outcomes from the Kremlin.

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