American Security Project releases “Climate Security Index” report
by Maril Hazlett
The American Security Project – a bipartisan nonprofit public policy and research organization – recently released a new report, the “Climate Security Index.”
This report is in a similar vein as recent reports from CNA on climate change and energy – but aims more at a public audience, goes deeper into climate science, and looks at different potential policy solutions. (And, simply from the design perspective, it has far more neato graphs – extremely useful for anyone putting together a powerpoint.)
Before looking at the CSI findings, consider a little context from their mission statement:
… Security is a fundamental responsibility of government. In the new millennium, however, U.S. national security policy has not kept pace with rapidly changing threats to American interests. Globalization has quickened, but the United States has not built alliances or institutions to protect and advance American security. Terrorists have expanded their reach and lethality, but the moral authority of the United States is at an all-time low. Changes in the Earth’s climate are more evident every day, but the United States has failed to act, alone or with allies, to avoid disaster.
America needs a new national security vision for this new era and a dialogue at home that is as robust as it is realistic. Yet the quality of our discussion on national security has been diminished. Fear has trumped conversation. Artificial differences have been created and real differences have been left unexamined. The character of our national dialogue has grown increasingly shrill while the need for honest discussion has grown more urgent.
One sad consequence of this polarized dialogue is that national security all too rarely figures in discussions about climate change. As the report’s introduction points out, however:
Addressing the consequences of changes in the Earth’s climate is not simply about saving polar bears or preserving the beauty of mountain glaciers, important as those are. Climate change is a threat to our national security. Taking it head on is about preserving our way of life.
How does climate change threaten the American way of life? The report lists several impacts:
The consequences of climate change will be found, and are being found now around the world. New climate conditions will drive human beings to move in ever larger numbers, seeking food, water, shelter and work. No region will be immune. Climate refugees will increasingly cross our own borders. The stress of changes in the environment will further weaken marginal states. Failing states will incubate extremism. In South Asia, the melting of Himalayan glaciers jeopardizes fresh water supplies for more than one billion human beings. In North America, agriculture could be disrupted by increases in temperatures and shifting weather patterns that limit rainfall. Globally, major urban centers could be threatened by rising sea levels. Malaria and other tropical diseases are moving into new areas, and outbreaks are increasing in frequency as the planet warms and weather patterns change. All of this is just the foretaste of a bitter cup from which we can expect to drink should we fail to address, urgently, the threats posed by climate change to our national security.
Additional findings from the report:
Climate change will alter the basic paradigm of national security policies and military operations.
“A changing and uncertain climate will demand we adapt to new conditions affecting: Why we apply our nation’s power (in all its forms), around the world; How and where specifically our military is likely to have to fight: And the issues driving alliance relationships (and whom are we likely to find on our side on the battlefield).”
Climate change will increase political extremism in already unstable areas of the globe.
“Climate change will force changes in “why” the United States gives aid, supports governments, provides assistance, and anticipates natural and manmade disasters, or goes to war. It will do so because climate change threatens unrest and extremism as competition for dwindling resources, especially water, spreads. Weak or poorly functioning governments will lose credibility and the support of their citizens. Under these conditions, extremists will increasingly find willing recruits.” In addition, the “regions most at risk from climate change are also those regions with the highest incidents of interstate conflict, radicalism, and terrorism. These regions include South Asia, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Central America.”
Climate change will increase demands for our military to carry out relief and disaster assistance missions.
“In particular, climate change will certainly expand the number of humanitarian relief and disaster assistance operations facing the international community. America’s men and women in uniform will be called on increasingly to help in these operations directly and to support the work of legitimate governments and non-governmental organizations alike.”
