An Ice-free North Pole
According to an article in Tuesday’s Financial Times, the U.S. Navy estimates that, due to continuing climate change, ships could be sailing across an “ice-free North Pole” as soon as 2035. At an Arctic conference in Tromsø, Norway, U.S. Rear Admiral Dave Titley stated,
[S]ometime between 2035 and 2040, there is a pretty good chance that the Arctic Ocean will be essentially ice-free for about a month.
Overtime, it is predicted that the ice-free period will gradually increase, leading to a new sea lane that would rival both the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Malacca as one of the key global shipping lanes. In fact, an ice-free Arctic would reduce the navigable distance between Rotterdam in the Netherlands and Yokohama, Japan by 40%.
This development has even led to Iceland attracting interest from both China and Singapore as a potential “staging post” for shipping via the Arctic. As Iceland’s foreign minister stated,
I’m like a girl at her first dance being flattered by all the attention. If you go to the Pacific over the Arctic, Iceland would be a natural place to redistribute cargo.
However, with the ice melting and the Arctic opening up, it raises the issue of
potential conflict between the big five Arctic coastal states – Russia, Canada, the US, Denmark and Norway – over navigation and mineral rights in a region estimated to hold a quarter of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas.
This issue of an ungoverned Arctic was recently discussed in an article by ASP, which notes that the U.S. needs to ratify the UN Law of the Sea Treaty before it can legally make any claims to territory in the Arctic. Similarly, there is a debate within the Arctic Council, the intergovernmental forum which promotes cooperation, coordination and interaction among the Arctic States, concerning whether there should be an international treaty governing the Arctic, similar to the one that governs Antarctica.
Climate change presents real and growing economic and security questions which the U.S. should prepare for by ratifying the Law of the Sea Treaty and establishing territorial rights in the Arctic.
