Are We Winning? (2009)
The American Security Project (ASP) announces the release of their annual report entitled: Are We Winning? Measuring Progress in the Struggle Against al Qaeda and Associate Movements.
This year’s report, authored by Dr. Bernard Finel and Christine Bartolf, notes a dramatic increase in Islamist violence around the world, but also identifies several indicators that suggest al Qaeda is losing relevance. According to the report, overall Islamist terrorist violence has risen 20-30 percent since last year – which is the highest point it has ever been at. However, evidence also shows that the reach and power of al Qaeda has diminished significantly and become more focused on local political leaders, rather than at the United States and the West, coordinated through al Qaeda.
Key findings include:
(1) Islamist violence continues to surge globally due to significant increases in attacks in Somalia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The number of Islamist attacks reached new highs in 2009. This is a significant source of concern since the this implies a growing pool of violent radicals who might be recruited for attack on the United States or Western interests.
(2) The status of the al Qaeda brand has diminished. Support for al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden in the Muslim world is down into single digits, after having hovered around 20-30% for the past several years. This brings support for al Qaeda down into the same range as support for terrorism, suggesting that al Qaeda has largely managed to squander its image as a defender – albeit flawed – of the Muslim world against the West. It is not quite clear why this happened, though it is likely that al Qaeda in Iraq’s excesses contributed. The ethnographic evidence to confirm this hypothesis is lacking, but this seems like a plausible interpretation
(3) Several “affiliates” are distancing themselves from al Qaeda. The defection of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group was the clearest indication of this trend, but even in Afghanistan it seems clear that the Quetta Shura Taliban is trying to reposition itself as a national liberation movement. There seems to be a reversal where instead of seeing locally focused groups aligning themselves with al Qaeda’s global agenda, instead we are seeing a return to a regional/local focus, and in some cases a move out of “jihadism” into simple criminality. Shabaab in Somalia is the one prominent exception to this trend.
(4) In terms of a threat to the U.S. homeland, the risk of attacks from Somalia may be as significant as the risk from Pakistan. There is strong evidence of American residents traveling to Somalia for training, and terrorist recruiters are operating in Somali communities in the United States as evidenced by arrests in Minneapolis this past year.
That said, the big change is that there is compelling evidence that these developments combined with increased tactical success in the drone war, demonstrate a weakened capacity of al Qaeda “central.” There were fewer al Qaeda videos this past year, and they are of lower quality. Al Qaeda websites have been brought down or hacked. There is also some evidence of fundraising problems. All of which suggests some institutional weakening.
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