Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
Today the American Security project released a report analyzing U.S. efforts to counter Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the Yemen-based al Qaeda affiliate that claimed responsibility for the attempted bombing of a U.S. airliner on Christmas Day 2009. The report found that though AQAP has managed to take advantage of a security and governance gap to establish a safe haven, it has yet to fully rally discontented Yemenis to its extremist cause. It also found that the current U.S. effort to counter the AQAP, by tying the U.S. closer to the Yemeni government and focusing on military operations, has considerable potential to further strengthen the group and entrench it.
Study author Germain Difo, Policy Analyst for counter-terrorism at the American Security Project commented:“I found it interesting how assiduously AQAP has worked to co-opt local grievances and channel Yemenis’ anger toward the Yemeni government and the U.S. It’s also remarkable just how dangerously close our current Yemen counterterrorism policy comes to playing directly into al Qaeda’s narrative. With its finely tuned media sense and talent for targeted messaging , AQAP is very well-positioned to further capitalize on this oversight in the future and turn our recent military and intelligence-based efforts to our recent military and intelligence-based efforts to our direct disadvantage.”
Report key points include the following:
1) AQAP’s entrenchment in Yemen is not a foregone conclusion.
2) Direct or indirect U.S. military action will likely validate AQAP’s anti-American narrative and entrench the organization further.
3) Without signficant incentives for governmental reform, neither military aid nor development assistance is likely to achieve the desired effect.
4) Binding the United States close to the Saleh regime could make extrication difficult and will likely prove to be a long-term liability.
Download the full report here.
