Bin Laden Speaks… but What Does it Mean?
In audio message, bin Laden says he endorsed Dec. 25 airline bomb plot – washingtonpost.com
Osama bin Laden endorsed the failed attempt to blow up a U.S. airliner Christmas Day and threatened new attacks against the United States in an audio message released Sunday that appeared aimed at asserting that he maintains some direct command over al-Qaeda-inspired offshoots.
U.S. officials and several researchers who track terrorist groups, however, said there is no indication that bin Laden or any of his top lieutenants had anything to do with or even knew in advance of the plot by a Yemen-based group that is one of several largely independent al-Qaeda franchises.
There is a major debate right now in the terrorism/counter-terrorism field. One side believes that al Qaeda is essentially resurgent. They believe that AQ has adjusted its strategy recently, has been coordinating attacks more extensively with the Quetta Shura Taliban and other Afghan insurgents. They also believe that the recent spate of attacks linked to Yemen, including the Fort Hood shootings and the Christmas (attempted) bombing were AQ inspired.
On the other hand, many analysts believe that AQ is increasingly irrelevant. Some of them believe that the main challenge is now among self-radicalized lone wolves, with little connection to AQ-central.
The reality is that we simply do not know. The profile of the analysts is high on both sides. The evidence in support of either position is circumstantial and inadequate.
Ultimately, from a policy perspective, the debate may be irrelevant. American counter-terrorism policy needs to a remain a defense-in-depth, and one of the largest risks is being overly reactive to the point of overemphasizing one challenge over others. Yemen is certainly a significant problem, but focusing too much on threat emanating from there is likely to be counter-productive, given that terrorist threats can rapidly shift and materialize elsewhere.
