A pair of F-16s in flight. Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons
Challenges to Maintaining Ukraine’s F-16 Squadrons
On August 27th, 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets had repelled Russia’s largest yet combined aerial attack the day before. This event signifies a major improvement in Ukraine’s air defense, especially since more modern fighter aircraft were involved. However, several changes to both air force size and capacity must be made if Ukraine wishes to successfully counter Russia and achieve tactical air superiority for specific operations, though maintaining the new F-16 squadrons is not simple.
Due to Ukraine’s severe lack of fighter aircraft compared to Russia, an important step that needs to be taken is to increase the number of modern jets Ukraine has. As of 2024, Russia’s air force has over thirteen times more aircraft than Ukraine. While Russia uses more advanced jets, Ukraine’s air force is predominantly comprised of Soviet-era aircraft such as the MiG-29. After months of ongoing requests from Kyiv, the U.S. and its NATO allies have agreed to send four squadrons of F-16 jets to Ukraine, which have begun shipping this summer. General Serhii Golubtsov has stated that these 64 jets are what he needs to achieve temporary local air superiority. Though Ukraine has already been working to aerially defend against Russian guided weapons and drones by using kamikaze drones of its own, it still needs additional fighter aircraft to make air defense more effective, despite never being able to have enough jets to match Russia.
Simply having more aircraft, however, is not enough. Ukraine currently does not have the number of pilots needed to fly 64 F-16s, and this issue has been stressed repeatedly. Fortunately, Ukrainian pilots have begun training to fly the F-16, with twenty expected to finish by the end of 2024, though that is still not the desired amount. Ukraine could therefore continue to re-train some of its veteran pilots to fly the F-16, though this would take those current pilots off the front lines for a period of time and entail a certain degree of risk.
Even with enough aircraft and pilots, Ukraine must also be able to properly maintain its new jets with sufficient spare parts and maintenance personnel. In November of 2023, William A. LaPlante, the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, requested that 90 days’ worth of spare parts for F-16 jets be transferred to Ukraine, noting that the jets would otherwise not be air worthy within a few months. However, maintaining Ukraine’s F-16 squadrons has also proven to be difficult. Ukraine will also need to train its own maintenance personnel, acquire training in other countries, or hire personnel from abroad. Obtaining this training is critical to ensuring the aircraft are combat ready, particularly given their intensive maintenance requirements, which in U.S. service can require 33 maintenance man-hours per flying hour. Theoretically, Kyiv could thus rely on a mix of multiple methods by initially outsourcing contract personnel while Ukrainian personnel are being trained, with the Ukrainian workers eventually replacing the contract workers once training is complete.
Finally, Ukraine will need to improve the condition of its airfields to properly support the takeoff and landing of more modern aircraft. Unlike Soviet jets, F-16s are built with air intakes that cannot close and therefore they cannot take off from poorly maintained airfields due to the risk of debris entering the intakes. However, airfield maintenance will be difficult, since airfields are more susceptible to attacks during wartime. Russia has previously attacked Ukrainian airfields and has even destroyed aircraft in the process, such as at Hostomel Airport in Kyiv. Furthermore, Russia has begun targeting airfields which it believes F-16s will be sent to, and also plans to destroy the jets themselves. Considering that even Russia has had difficulty defending its own air bases, it is likely that Ukraine will face significant challenges in protecting the airfields at which these F-16s are based. Likewise, Ukraine will need to be strategic about when and where it deploys its limited air defense mechanisms, given that Russia could target anywhere at any time.
It is therefore critical that the U.S. continues supporting Ukraine, including by helping increase the size of its air force, training more pilots and ground crew, and augmenting the volume of its air defense assets. If Ukraine does not receive enough jets and pilots, airfields are unable to be properly maintained, or maintenance needs cannot be met, there would be a much greater chance of ceding air superiority to Russia over the skies of Ukraine. However, if Ukraine is able to field enough aircraft consistently, it may be able to concentrate a critical quantity of this air power briefly at specific points along the frontline to assist in tactical breakthroughs on the ground.
For now, Ukraine’s air force is severely lagging behind that of Russia in terms of available airpower, impeding its ability to defend itself, and there are several challenges in maintaining Ukraine’s F-16 squadrons. However, this problem can be ameliorated by engaging in a comprehensive modernization effort aimed at establishing a long-term Ukrainian capability of flying, maintaining, and protecting its Western-supplied aircraft.
