Climate change poses threat of war, USF forum will hear
Military analysts say climate change threatens a cascade of natural disasters, crop failures, famine and diseasethat will strengthen terrorists by sparking conflict in unstable countries.
A leading proponent of this scenario is Ret. Vice Adm. Dennis McGinn, who will be at the University of South Florida on Monday for a public forum on climate change. See below for information on attending.
McGinn is a 35-year Navy veteran who commanded the San Diego-based Third Fleet. He’ll be joined at USF by former Sens. Bob Graham, the Florida Democrat, and John Warner, Republican from Virginia, and former U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, the Cape Coral Republican.
Here are excerpts from a conversation this week with McGinn:
Q: What do you mean when you say climate change is a “threat multiplier?”
A: If you look around the world now, you see where there are crises. The effects of climate change is like putting a magnifying glass on those tensions, on those fault lines, on those economic or political lines, and it magnifies them and causes them to be much more intense, and some in cases much more frequent.
Q: What countries are most vulnerable to these disruptions?
A: In the Mideast, competition for water is very intense. We’re seeing migrations across the Mediterranean and further east across from North Africa into Italy. In our own country we’ve had immigration pressure due to economic reasons for decades. Imagine if climate change caused a drought (in Mexico), less water, less food production, then the immigration problem would be overwhelming.
Q: What do you say to people who question the evidence of climate change?
A: I apply military judgment. We can’t wait for 100 percent certainty. If you wait for 100 percent certainty on the battlefield, the consequences are disastrous. We know climate change is real. It’s already happening. We don’t need to be spending a lot of time worrying about the causes. This threat is real. This set of challenges are real and we need to do something about it.
Q: How does energy consumption figure into the climate change and national security issue?
A: This country burns oil for energy. We’re dependent on foreign oil. In 2008, this nation shipped $386 billion overseas to pay our oil bill. This goes right to the core of our national security. How can we expect to have any leverage over a county like Iran, that could cut off 40 percent of the world’s oil supply by cutting off the Straight of Hormuz?
