Defense News: The F-22 Has a Future
Sell Advanced Fighter to Australian, Japanese Allies
By JAMES LUDES
The announcement by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates to end production of the U.S. Air Force’s only operational fifth-generation fighter, the F-22 Raptor, and cap production at 187, should not be the end of the F-22. Its future lies in sales to important American allies: Japan and Australia.
The correct size of the F-22 fleet has been a hotly debated topic for more than a decade. Originally set at 740 fighters, the program ultimately was reduced to 183, with the fiscal 2009 supplemental budget including four additional aircraft, increasing the fleet to 187.
The fighter, which costs $140 million per plane, is incredibly capable. But the argument that America should spend $1 billion for seven aircraft has been difficult to sustain – especially since the U.S. has not lost an aircraft in air-to-air combat since Vietnam.
Employment of Raptor Unlikely
The F-22 was never designed to fight the Iraqi or Serbian air forces. The U.S. developed the F-22 to achieve air supremacy over a contested battlespace against a foe operating technologically advanced fighters and air defense systems of its own. In the near- to mid-term, the only logical scenario in which an F-22 might be needed is a fight over the Taiwan Strait.
The policy implications of any confrontation with the People’s Republic of China are immense. Still, over the last decade, China has acquired a highly sophisticated set of capabilities designed to thwart America’s air superiority in any possible fight, including the Su-27 Flanker and its variants.
Ironically, the Flanker is the aircraft developed by the Soviet Union to confront the American F-15 and F-16 fighters in Europe – establishing the requirement for the F-22 in the first place.
Capability, of course, is more than just airframes, just as threats are more than capabilities. Still, if the U.S. and its partners in the Asia-Pacific region believe they must match the growth of Chinese air power, then it’s time to consider possibly exporting the F-22 to Japan and Australia.
As chief of naval operations, Adm. Mike Mullen, now the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke frequently of America’s need for a thousand-ship fleet in which not all of the ships would be flying the American flag. He talked about the value added and strength gained from the capacity of allies and friends around the world.
As a presidential candidate, Barack Obama spoke of the need to increase partner capacity to meet the challenges of the 21st century.
Neither man might have had the F-22 in mind, but consider the logic.
Australia and Japan are the pillars of America’s security relationships in the Asia-Pacific region, and the U.S. has long expected to operate in concert with them in any conflict there. They are not aggressive powers; export of an advanced-capability fighter like the F-22 to them would not destabilize the region.
They are wholly stable democracies, and as a result there is virtually no risk of these weapons ever being turned against us.
Improve Coalition Operations
Their acquisition of the F-22 would enhance our ability to conduct coalition operations and ensure interoperability. And finally, both the Japanese and the Australians are reported to be interested in acquiring the F-22 for their own air defense needs. If they want to buy the F-22, we should sell it to them to enhance our own security and save thousands of American jobs in the process.
One obstacle is U.S. law, which prohibits the export of the F-22 out of fear that its advanced avionics could be stolen or diverted to potential foes who would then gain insights into how to defeat the aircraft.
These “black box” concerns are real and would need to be addressed. But reports indicate that the Japanese may be willing to cover the cost of re-engineering the systems in question to address U.S. export concerns.
The reality is that the sale of an advanced weapon system like the F-22 to anyone, including Australia and Japan, must be part of a broader regional strategy that measures the risk against the potential benefits of such an action.
Fundamentally, that’s a political judgment.
But with the decision to cease production of the F-22 for the U.S. Air Force, there isn’t a lot of time to decide to change the law and permit the export of the Raptor to our friends. If it’s going to happen, it has to happen now.
James Ludes is executive director of the American Security Project, Washington. He served as a member of President-elect Barack Obama’s transition team working inside the Defense Department. These views are his own.
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