On Tuesday, August 27th, ASP hosted a panel with Lieutenant General Daniel Christman, USA (Ret.), former Deputy Secretary General of NATO Rose Gottemoeller, and former Ambassador to NATO Douglas Lute, Lieutenant General, USA (Ret.), discussing NATO in a post-Russia-Ukraine War world. ASP COO Matthew Wallin moderated the panel and posed the question of NATO conflict-readiness after the war.

LTG Christman questioned whether there would ever be an “after” for the Russia-Ukraine War, as Russian irredentists earnestly believe that Ukraine must be a part of Russia, so the conflict almost certainly will not end easily. Later in the panel, LTG Christman mentioned that Russia can be deterred from escalation and further action by using the recent additions to NATO, Sweden and Finland, to apply slight pressure to Moscow. He noted that the Kursk incursion has demonstrated that Russia’s borders are lightly defended, and thus Finland will be a point of consternation among Russian security experts.

Ms. Gottemoeller responded to the question with the notion that Russian aggression will be a constant threat to NATO security, and so a continuous flow of resources to Europe is necessary for deterrence. She also brought up the idea that the Putin regime could collapse in the future, and that potential instability will also require security resources in eastern Europe. Ms. Gottemoeller believes that a collapse of the Putin regime would not necessarily lead to a better situation, as the weakness of the political landscape in post-USSR Russia is what lead to the Clinton administration’s failures in engaging with Yeltsin’s Russia.

Ambassador Lute continued that line of thought, stating that history and politics are often determined by the consequences of major system-shocks, such as the fall of the Soviet Union or 9/11. He believes that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is one of those shocks, and it is far too soon to predict what the after-effects of that shock will be. He went on to mention that part of the reason that Western countries have been hesitant to grant Ukraine rapid access to advanced defense equipment or to relinquish restraints around its use is that Russia’s red lines were unknown, but it has been two and a half years of Russia more often taking an “evacuation” approach rather than escalating the conflict further, so Ambassador Lute argued that the hesitation to give aid to Ukraine is unjustified.

The panel covered a wider range of topics surrounding NATO and Ukraine but closed with Mr. Wallin asking whether all of NATO will eventually reach the two percent of GDP military budget commitment. Ambassador Lute believed that as long as Russia remains a security threat to Europe, every NATO member will reach the commitment, whereas LTG Christman believed that the two percent commitment will not be met in a post-war world unless NATO states remain vigilant to the Russian security threat, and Ms. Gottemoeller thinks that the United States must consider how it can help European states maintain the political will for perceived high defense budgets.

A recording of the webinar can be found below:

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