Experts: Korea conflict poses major risk for U.S.
By Sunny Yang, Mimi Hall and Tom Vanden Brook
USA TODAY, 11/23/2010
BEIJING — China says it sees no need to go after North Korea for its attack on a South Korean island that left two dead while some Korea experts say the Obama administration must respond strongly to the latest provocation from the Stalinist regime.
“We took notice of some reports; we paid a close attention to the situation,” said Hong Lei, spokesman for the China Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “We wish each side stay calm and exercise restraint, build mutual trust and work together for peace and stability of the peninsula.”
However, experts in the United States warn that the North’s shelling of buildings on Yeonpyeong could lead to major hostilities and require diplomatic intervention from both China and the United States, which is committed to defending the South.
VIOLENCE: N. Korea fires artillery onto S. Korean island; 2 dead
“The natural reaction is to say this is more saber-rattling, no harm no foul,” said Victor Cha, Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “But I don’t think this is typical. The provocations are getting more serious. These are basically acts of war.”
John Bolton, U.N. ambassador under President George W. Bush and now a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said the North typically tries to threaten the West this way when progress in its illicit nuclear program comes to light.
Earlier this week a report from the former director of the U.S. Los Alamos Nuclear Laboratory revealed the North showed him a new uranium enrichment facility built in secret and in violation of U.N. resolutions. The United States has accused North Korea of selling nuclear technology to Iran and Syria.
“They threaten and undertake these kinds of aggressive actions in the expectation that the United States and others will appease them,” Bolton said. “From Pyongyang’s point of view, why not, it has worked almost every time.”
Bolton urged that the Obama administration isolate North Korea and reject further negotiations.
“The threat from North Korea is not going to end until North Korea ends,” Bolton said. “It’s a matter of squeezing them, isolating them completely and saying to China, which has the unique capability to determine events in North Korea: You can’t pursue a hands-off policy anymore if you are serious in saying you don’t want North Korea with nuclear weapons.”
But Janne Nolan, head of nuclear security programs at the American Security Project and author of Guardians of the Arsenal: The Politics of Nuclear Strategy, said the latest nuclear advancement is to be expected.
“We were ready to face down 10,000 nuclear weapons from the Soviet Union. We should be able to deal with North Korea,” Nolan said.
The Obama administration said it intended to talk over the matter with South Korea and China and declined to say whether a military response was being contemplated. The Pentagon referred all questions to the White House.
“The president is outraged by these actions,” deputy press secretary Bill Burton said. “We stand shoulder to shoulder with our ally in South Korea. And as the president said in Korea, we’re fully committed to their defense.”
South Korean President Lee Myung Bak did not order a counterattack but vowed “enormous retaliation” should Tuesday’s attack be followed by another action.
The United States has 28,000 troops in South Korea and can move aircraft carriers with hundreds of combat aircraft to the peninsula capable of striking Pyongyang. The North has a 1.1 million-member arm, among the largest in the world, and thousands of missile batteries capable of hitting Seoul.
Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst who specializes in North and South Korea military strategy for the RAND Corporation, said the North is a potent threat despite the turmoil and poverty there. He said it would fire artillery shells into Seoul and inflict major damage, or perhaps even missiles tipped, potentially, with nuclear weapons.
“A nuclear weapon landing in Seoul would kill or seriously injure 300,000 people,” Bennett said.
The North Koreans would be reluctant to do so, Bennett said, fearing massive retaliation from the South and the United States.
“It’s unlikely that they could win a war, but they could do enough damage that it would be Pyrrhic victory for us,” Bennett said.
Beijing experts on China-Korean relations in Beijing said they do not expect China to do much about the latest provocation.
“I am not very surprised by North Korea’s deed this time,” said Shi Yinhong, professor at Renmin University’s School of International Relations and director of its Center for American Studies. “It’s hard to judge whether it’s good or bad, it’s just good for North Korea’s new political situation.”
Shi said the latest move may be an attempt by the son of North Korea ruler Kim Jong Il to prove the military generals that dominate the country’s politics that he has the mettle to succeed his father. Kim Jong Un has been named to some high-level posts recently, an indication he is being groomed to succeed his father, experts say.
“Because Kim Jong Un just took power, he wanted to show to the North Korea army and the people he is brave, firm and persistent, and gain more support from the army,” Shi said.
Bennett agreed that the attacks indicate growing desperation in North Korea and the potentially turbulent transfer of power to Kim’s son.
Kim Jong Il has been to China twice this year, “begging for aid” and has not received much in return, Bennett said. Millions of North Koreans have starved to death in the past 10 years, according to the United Nations, and the South says the 10,000 North Koreans who have fled over to its side of the border since 2007 matches the number that made it over from the end of the 1950-53 Korean War to 2007.
“The attacks appear to be an attempt to force South Korea and the United States to negotiate with him and provide assistance,” Bennett said.
Bennett said Kim’s son lacks military credentials and wants to prove that he can provide “great victories” for North Korea. Footage of smoking ruins in South Korea aid that perception, he said.
Bruce Klinger of the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank said the Obama administration has committed itself to Mideast peace talks that are “going nowhere” and a new START arms reduction treaty with Russia that “has no advantages for the United States.” In doing so, he said, the administration has sent “messages to the Iranians and the North Koreans that they’re not at the top of his radar.”
“One could argue that that’s why they’re becoming so aggressive,” he said.
Klinger said the Obama administration believed that “because Bush was gone, North Korea would no longer feel threatened and would abandon provocations.”
“The world is a much more difficult and dangerous place that the campaign thought it would be.”
Cha recommended Obama put a lot of pressure on China to rein in North Korea, which relies on China for aid, food and energy.
Cha agreed that the North has not been a “top-tier” issue for the administration. “But events like this need to make it a much higher priority. This is close to conventional war in Asia.”
