IEA: Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map
In a recent report called Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map, the IEA stated that the world is not on track to honor the 2 degrees Celsius limit set by governments on global temperature change. Current energy policies, if maintained, will lead to an increase of global temperature between 3.6 and 5.3 degrees Celsius. In May of 2013, atmospheric carbon dioxide reached an unprecedented level of 400 parts per million for the first time in several hundred millennia.
The energy sector accounts for two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions, and the IEA proposed a 4-for-2 °C scenario that suggests four policy measures within the energy sector that, if implemented, will meet the 2 degrees Celsius limit on global temperature through 2020, all with zero net economic cost.
First, the IEA suggests adopting specific energy efficiency measures such as performance standards in buildings for lighting, heating, and cooling equipment in vehicles. Several countries already efficiency policies in place, like the United States, China, and European Union members, but these policies need to be updated. Other countries lack efficiency standards entirely. By 2020, global investment in efficiency standards would reach $200 billion, but reduced spending on fuel bills would offset the cost entirely.
Second, countries like the United States, China, and India must reduce the role of coal by limiting the use of low-efficiency plants and ending constructing of subcritical coal-fired plants. The IEA predicts that with the increase of renewable energy sources and natural gas, a reduction in coal burning will decrease emissions by 640Mt by 2020.
Third, methane release from upstream oil and gas industries must be halved by 2020. Through venting and flaring, these industries released methane equivalent to 1.1 Gt of carbon dioxide in 2010. The necessary technologies already exist and are readily available at low costs, and several countries are adopting new performance standards already.
Lastly, the IEA suggest a partial phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies. In 2011, fossil fuels received $523 billion in subsidies, which was nearly six times more than subsidies given to renewable energies. Fifteen percent of global carbon emissions receive fossil fuel subsidies despite only 8% being accountable for a carbon price. Through growing budgeting pressures, both fossil fuel importers and exporters are shifting towards subsidy reform. Already, G20 and APEC member countries have committed to phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.
While the IEA plan is achievable, it will require significant commitment and change. While many of the key countries are already adopting new regulations and policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions, the IEA says a coordinated global effort is required to combat climate change efficiently.
Through more efficient carbon technologies and the growth of the renewable energy sector, we have all the tools required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Renewable energy sources like hydropower, wind, solar photovoltaic, and biomass-fueled plants will receive upwards of $2 trillion dollars in investment by 2020, and subsidies will help ease the development process.
Through global coordination to limit fossil fuel emissions, strict adherence to energy efficiency measures, and continuous development of renewable energy sources, this report charts a way in which the world may be able to stay under the 2 degree Celsius mark.
The American Security Project has written several reports discussing renewable energy and climate change. To read more on ASP’s view of climate security, click here.
