In Yemen, Collateral Damage is Tempting Fate

A Yemeni government airstrike kills a local leader belonging to the Abeida tribe in Yemen’s Marib province:

Yemen observer:

The airstrike mistakenly hit Jabir al-Shabwani when he was at the farm of Al-Qaeda operative, Mohammed Saeed bin jameel. Al-Obeida tribesmen retaliated by attacking the air defense camp, and the military zone in the government compound in the city of Marib.

This is pretty much exactly the problem with using missile strikes in Yemen. Up to this point, the Yemeni tribes haven’t been especially receptive to al Qaeda’s political and ideological agenda, generally viewing them as outsiders that might be tolerated temporarily but could potentially challenge their authority in the long run. That could easily change if the tribes begin to see the central government or its U.S. backers as a more signficant threat than al Qaeda. Backlash from the tribes is exactly what the U.S. and the Yemeni government cannot afford, and blowing up tribesmen is probably the quickest way to produce it.

From the Long War Journal:

Rumors from Marib indicate that unmanned US strike aircraft, either the Predators or more deadly Reapers, were seen circling over the area.

The worst part is that because the U.S. backs the Yemeni government militarily by providing logistics and intelligence for these types of strikes, the Yemeni government’s failures and mistakes, justifiably or not, have now become our mistakes. Whether American Reapers were actually circling overhead or not is largely irrelevant, our deep involvement in the Yemeni security apparatus makes it such that any offensive action that the Yemeni government takes will be linked to us regardless.

Incidents like these are bound to keep happening in a campaign extensively employing missile strikes, and every one gives AQAP’s anti-U.S. message and rhetoric a deeper resonance with the very people whose trust and support are needed in the long run to minimize al Qaeda’s influence in Yemen.

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