Institute for Policy Studies: "The Surge of Ideas"
EARLY THIS YEAR, Gen. David Petraeus, head of U.S. Central Command, spoke at a public event in Washington, D.C., about the situation in Iraq and the priorities of the U.S. military in the greater Middle East.[1] The event was hosted by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a think tank led by Kimberly Kagan—spouse of the neoconservative writer Frederick Kagan—which claims to be a “non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization [that] advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education.”
During his presentation, Petraeus discussed everything from the challenges posed by Iran’s influence in Iraq to the non-military tactics needed to rein in Al Qaeda. Arguably the most interesting part of the presentation, however, was Petraeus’ assessment of the 2007 “surge” in Iraq. The general argued that “far more important than the surge of 30,000 additional U.S. troops was the surge of ideas that helped us to employ those troops.” Among those he lauded for waging this surge of ideas were various members of the “think tank world,” including “Kim” and “Fred,” as well as “a number of other heroes,” who Petraeus said guided a “study and analysis that did indeed have a strategic impact unlike that of any other study or analysis that I can think of.”
Petraeus was referring to “Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq,” a study sponsored by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and led by Fred Kagan and retired Gen. Jack Keane (an ISW board member), with Kim Kagan and a host of AEI scholars (Danielle Pletka, Michael Rubin, Reuel Marc Gerecht, Thomas Donnelly, Gary Schmitt, among others) serving as advisers. The group’s report, released nearly three years to the date before Petraeus’ ISW presentation, played an instrumental role in shaping the surge and building public support for it.
Petraeus extolled his think tank “heroes” for providing “the rationale for the additional forces that were required [and] describe[ing] how they might be used in Iraq,” claiming that their work “serendipitously” made its way into “the West Wing and ultimately even into the Oval Office. … I think it played a very significant role in helping to shape the intellectual concepts and indeed, in helping to shape the ultimate policy decision that was made.” (Petraeus offered a similar account of the “surge of ideas” several months later at the American Enterprise Institute, when he was awarded AEI’s “Irving Kristol Award” in May 2010.[2])
PETRAEUS’ PRESENTATION highlighted an issue that has drawn increasing attention and criticism from commentators and foreign policy experts. In recent years there has been a tendency for like-minded think tanks and military officers to jointly pursue policy objectives, sometimes in direct conflict with the stated preferences of the president and his advisers. According to some observers, this trend raises questions about the appropriate role of both military officers, who are part of a chain of command, and think tanks, which present themselves as “non-partisan” appraisers of public policy.
The Iraq surge public relations campaign is often highlighted as a case in point. Commenting on this case, Brian Katulis, a fellow at the liberal Center for American Progress, argues that when military officers get involved in policy advocacy, it can have a “narrowing effect” on debate.
Katulis points to Petraeus’ support for the work of Michael O’Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack of the centrist Brookings Institution. In a July 2007 article for the New York Times titled “A War We Might Just Win”—a “propaganda piece,” says Katulis—the two analysts cited their military-sponsored tour in Iraq to claim that, as a result of the surge, “morale was high,” the bad guys were on the run, and while the situation remained “grave,” the military escalation merited continued congressional support.[3] Exactly the message, says Katulis, that Petraeus hoped to transmit.
Bernard Finel, a fellow at the bipartisan American Security Project in Washington, agrees, arguing that Petraeus’ decision to give a “window shield” tour to analysts like O’Hanlon was patently deliberate. During the months before his Iraq tour, O’Hanlon had helped promote the surge ideas pushed by the Kagans, coauthoring a paper with Fred Kagan and inviting him to talk at a Brookings event.
“Petraeus knew that the Bush administration’s credibility was low, that it was going to have trouble selling the surge,” said Finel in an interview, so he hand-picked a number of civilians who he knew were behind this policy and helped turn them into media “experts.” This effort sidelined critics of the surge, says Finel, who were viewed as “outsiders, people without access, and thus not to be believed.”
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