An Iranian Fath-360 missile firing during a training exercise. Source: Wikimedia Commons
How Iran Benefits from Weapon Sales to Russia
On September 10th, 2024, Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that Iran had recently sent Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia and subsequently called for further sanctions against Tehran. Though Iran denies it has done so, these weapon transfers clearly benefit it in various ways, and although there is no single solution to the problem, the United States can certainly implement strategies to mitigate any benefits Iran receives through its weapon sales to Russia.
Iran and Russia have been supplying each other with weapons since before the Ukraine war. For example, in addition to the recent Fath-360 missiles, Iran has provided Russia with Shahed kamikaze drones, which Russia has been using in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine, having launched over 400 of them at the start of September of 2024. Russia, meanwhile, has given Iran military equipment such as helicopters, tanks, and armored vehicles.
This partnership is a major cause of concern for the United States and its allies, given how Iran is likely to use some of the funding it has acquired from its weapon sales. Iran has notoriously used its wealth to fund its proxies abroad, such as Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah, which use Iranian weapons to carry out terrorist attacks. For example, in February of 2024, U.S. Central Command intercepted a Yemen-bound ship containing explosives, medium-range ballistic missile components, and other military equipment intended for the Houthis. Likewise, the State Department reports that Hezbollah receives most of its funding, weapons, and training from Iran, which also provides these accommodations to the military wing of Hamas. Additionally, the weapons sent to Russia are expensive, with a single Shahed drone costing somewhere between $20,000 and $40,000. As a result, Iran gains more money, which it can use to purchase or manufacture weapons for its terrorist proxies or to fund those proxies directly. Sending weapons and money to these organizations will thus both aid the groups themselves and also give Iran a wider reach beyond its borders.
In addition, Iran’s sale of weapons to Russia will not only strengthen Islamist terror groups, but also boost Iran’s own military capacity. Due to these weapon sales, defensive cooperation between the two countries has prospered, giving Iran an ally that it can rely on for military assistance such as improving GPS jamming capabilities and providing missile technology. Iran’s military is thus benefiting from Russia’s advanced technology, like Yak-130 combat trainer jets. By continuing to exchange weapons and military knowledge with Russia, Iran will acquire more equipment that can improve the effectiveness of its military by bolstering its preexisting capabilities.
Despite there being no simple way to make Iran cease its sale of weapons to Russia, part of the solution could be to prevent the sale of some of the components that Iran uses to make these weapons. Iran, like Russia, is known to use American-made parts in its weapons, since they are mass-produced and high quality. For instance, Iran uses American microchips, GPS modules, and circuit board components in its drones. In fact, 40 of the 52 components removed from a Shahed-136 drone downed in Ukraine in 2023 were likely made by U.S. and other Western companies. However, preventing the acquisition of these parts is difficult. They are very small and hard to keep track of individually, and Iran’s shell companies are difficult to identify. Therefore, a strategy such as the use of artificial intelligence or other computer system to track multiple transactions simultaneously should be implemented to figure out which companies are selling these items directly to Iran or are selling them to other companies which in turn sell to Iran. With this information, the United States government could implement a price control on the suppliers of these components to the point where purchase is more difficult. As a result, shell companies would be less likely to acquire chips and other technology that Iran needs for its weapons. However, some believe that sanctions are the best method that the United States can use to counter weapon sales, though Iran is known to work around such restrictions.
There is no definite way to completely prevent Iran from selling weapons to Russia and benefitting from those sales. The United States must therefore use its available resources to mitigate Iran’s capabilities as much as possible. While sanctions are effective to an extent, they are certainly not enough to manage the problem alone. Hence, the United States can use strategies such as imposing price controls and using artificial intelligence to track transactions to make it more difficult for Iran to benefit from weapons sales.
Image credit: Saeed Sajjadi, Fars Media Corporation, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fath_missile.jpg
