Iran's Nuclear Tunnels
Interesting story in the NYT about Iran burying/hiding its nuclear program. They claim it is just for security, Secretary Gates gives the conventional reponse:
Iran Shielding Its Nuclear Efforts in Maze of Tunnels – NYTimes.com
Mr. Gates, along with other Western officials, has dismissed that line of argument as cover for a covert arms program.
“If they wanted it for peaceful purposes,” he said of the Qum plant on CNN, “there’s no reason to put it so deep underground, no reason to be deceptive about it, keep it a secret for a protracted period of time.”
That is almost certainly right. But then again, it is worth considering the alternative. Isn’t it possible that Iran has a legitimate reason to fear that even a peaceful program might be attacked? Would Israel tolerate even a peaceful program with enrichment capacity knowing it could be diverted down the road? And given the fact that we fought a war with Iraq over non-existent WMD stocks, isn’t it possible that the Iranians might think our concern is merely a pretext regardless of their actual intentions?
In the final analysis, there is enough on-going ambiguity about Iranian intentions that we’re probably better off playing for time and hoping for some sort domestic regime change rather than pursuing any other course of action. Of course, that is my assessment today. I sometimes think a strong sanctions regime is a better idea if achievable. The only thing that is sure is that a military option today would be the wrong course of action for both operational and strategic reasons.
