Joshua Foust quoted in Christian Science Monitor
Source: Christian Science Monitor, February 12, 2012
By contrast, Syria’s population density is almost 30 times greater, which increases the risk of civilian casualties. The Army is five times larger than the former Libyan Army and much better equipped. And Syria’s air-defense network is sufficiently large to pose a challenge to Western planes. “In Libya, we could accomplish a lot of value with very little at stake,” says Joshua Foust, a fellow at the American Security Project in Washington, D.C. “Syria has an advanced antiaircraft system that would take a lot of work to get rid of. You’d have to engage in a lot of destruction and commit a lot of time and a lot of money to get to the point where you could accomplish something.”
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So when a more tepid Security Council resolution was proposed Feb. 4 for Syria, Moscow and Beijing vetoed it. “When [Russian Foreign Minister] Sergei Lavrov was in D.C., he flat-out said, ‘You burned us on Libya … so you’re not going to get Syria on my watch,’ ” says Mr. Foust.
Russia also stands to lose about $5 billion in arms sales if UN sanctions are imposed on Syria, including current contracts worth about $1.5 billion. Foust speculates that continued Russian arms transfers to Syria are acting as a sort of “invasion insurance.” They include the belated transfer in December of a consignment of supersonic P-800 Yakhont antiship missiles, part of a $300 million deal signed four years ago. Yakhont missiles are among the most advanced in the world and would pose a serious threat to a Western amphibious task force operating off the Syrian coast.
