Mogadishu Residents Leave Ahead of US-Backed Offensive
Mogadishu Residents Told to Leave Somali Capital – BBC
Mogadishu’s mayor has told residents to leave the Somali capital’s war zones, amid fierce battles with insurgents. Mayor Abdurisaq Mohamed Nor said the long-anticipated government offensive may start soon, so residents should withdraw at least 2km (1.25 miles)
It is questionable whether the US-backed Transitional Federal Government’s planned offensive will be able to push al-Shabaab and allied insurgent groups out of Mogadishu. The more interesting question, however, is how and whether the government plans to consolidate its gains if the offensive actually succeeds. Historically, the TFG has had significant difficulty holding territory, ceding it back to al-Shabaab and other militant groups sometimes mere hours after clearing it. One of the TFG’s major failings has also been its inability to provide basic services to Somalis, even in areas that it claims to control.
It is somewhat unlikely, therefore, that the TFG will be able to use a nominally successful offensive to make any real difference in terms of either the government’s level of influence vis-à-vis al-Shabaab or its standing as a legitimate governing authority in the eyes of Somalis. The offensive is also almost guaranteed to generate humanitarian emergencies to compound those that already exist, a fact that will make any attempt at legitimate governance even more difficult than it was before. An offensive generating widespread displacement and collateral damage could easily accelerate the TFG’s alienation from the Somali population, weakening it further as it tries to assert its strength.
