USS Toledo arrives at Ice Camp Seadragon in the Arctic Ocean (2020) for readiness and joint training. (Credit: Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Michael B. Zingaro)

In President Trump’s recent speech to Congress, his reiteration of his desire to acquire Greenland “one way or the other” is a reflection of the intensifying strategic competition in the Arctic. As climate change accelerates, countries are seeking to exploit the changing landscape, leading to increased commercial and military activity. Though the area has a history of contest, the environment’s rapidly melting ice has revealed a wealth of natural resources and increasingly navigable shipping routes with grand economic implications. Consequently, in recent years, growing Russian militarization has raised considerable concern among Arctic states, heightening tensions as the region becomes geopolitically more significant, making it more crucial than ever for NATO countries to strengthen their relationships and develop a unified defense strategy. 

During the Cold War, the Arctic became a NATO frontline mainly focused on under-ice submarine activity and airspace monitoring. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the region was considered “High North, Low Tension” and saw an era of relatively peaceful cooperation. This period decisively ended with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and saber-rattling has grown far more direct. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently stated that Russia is “fully ready to defend its interests militarily, politically, and from the standpoint of defense technologies [in the Arctic].” Following the NATO accession of Sweden and Finland, Putin has only grown more sensitive to fears of “encirclement” by the alliance, possibly explaining more recent demonstrations of power projection by increased military aircraft and maritime activity in the area. 

In the last two decades, Russia has significantly expanded its polar presence, bolstering its northern security and strategic position, while benefiting from its ownership of more than half of the coastline in the region. As part of this, Russia has invested in reopening Soviet-era infrastructure and modernizing its military assets. Furthermore, China is expanding its presence there by partnering with Russia for regional access, declaring itself a “Near-Arctic State,” and conducting joint polar military exercises that complicate the security environment.  

The Arctic is vital for economic and resource reasons as well. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) offers a quicker maritime route between Europe and Asia, and Russia’s control of this increasingly accessible waterway could potentially disrupt allied commercial or military shipping, challenging freedom of navigation. Moreover, with significant oil and gas reserves, Russia has leverage over global energy markets, particularly as Europe remains dependent on Russian fossil fuels that help fund Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s Arctic activities test NATO’s readiness and capabilities and are part of a broader global strategy, as its vigilant security efforts provide stark contrast to the lack of NATO strategic collective defense in the region.   

Seven Arctic territorial claimants are NATO members, counterbalancing Russia’s presence, but the response has been slow and inadequate given these developments. NATO has acknowledged the developing need for a more coordinated security strategy, but still greatly lags behind Russia in its collective defense posture. NATO would need at least 10 years to match Russia’s current regional security infrastructure. This latent approach is further solidified by the fact that the alliance presently has no formal Arctic policy, underscoring insufficient urgency and resources dedicated to the region. To swiftly adapt to the evolving security landscape, NATO must develop a clear strategy to strengthen the collective defense of its Northern Flank and safeguard its interests through enhanced infrastructure, expanded patrols, and the security of critical resources. This includes: 

• Closing the security infrastructure gap by expanding and enhancing major projects, including military bases and anti-missile defense systems, as a priority. 

• Increasing air and naval patrolling in strategically important areas, like the GIUK gap and the Barents Sea, to monitor and record any potential growing threats. 

• Securing critical key systems (i.e., undersea communication cables, pipelines, and shipping routes) to defend its regional interests. 

• Adopting an official Arctic security policy that outlines guidance and goals in the region and ensures a unified effort across member states. 

As the warming Arctic is set to become a key global frontier for geopolitical strategic competition, Russia’s polar dominance has only grown, while China is now spreading its influence as an extra-regional actor. The “NATO 7” must enhance efforts to create a more comprehensive collective defense strategy to secure members’ interests in the region. Adaptation to the evolving climate in the High North will require proactive collaboration between allies, enabling NATO a robust and unified defense posture that addresses the growing challenges and long-term stability in the Arctic. 

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