Nuclear Powers of Tomorrow
At the end of October, Iraq began lobbying the IAEA and UN to rebuild at least one of the nuclear reactors destroyed during the first Gulf War. This development prompted Foreign Policy to add Iraq to their ongoing list of “The Future Nuclear Powers You Should Be Worried About” (note: the article is about future nuclear powers and not powers with nuclear weapons).
The list is surprising, avoiding mention of today’s mainstay nuclear miscreants Iran and North Korea. On their list of ‘future-nuclear-powers-to-worry-about’ are Myanmar Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and the United Arab Emirates.
In brief:
- Myanmar has possible ties with North Korea and is already at odds with Bangladesh.
- Bangladesh, while receiving nuclear assistance from Pakistan, appears to be getting pulled into the longstanding dispute over Kashmir between the nuclear equipped cousins Pakistan and India (Bangladesh’s borders are within India, and Indian assistance to Pakistan’s neighbor, Afghanistan, is already riling Pakistan up).
- Kazakhstan, situated atop huge deposits of uranium, is viewed as a potential nuclear security liability given Kazakhstan’s strong reputation for corruption.
- Venezuela, which has a history of making its Latin American neighbors uncomfortable, looks to be cooperating with Russia and Iran to develop its own nuclear program.
- The United Arab Emirates concludes the list, with FP arguing that the inclusion of nuclear technology to what is arguably the most “stable” and “liberal” country in the Middle East poses the risk of making its neighbors turn nuclear also.
What this list brings to light is the amount of worry that is generated whenever a country seeks out its own nuclear program. Setting the groundwork for a civilian nuclear program does, intentionally or not, further a country towards a working nuclear weapons program, raising unease among neighbors and creating more fissile material for everyone to worry about.
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An interesting piece. If Myanmar and Bangladesh are potential future nuclear powers, one has to wonder whether any third world countries can be entirely ruled out as potential threats. Myanmar seems a more likely entry to this list because, like North Korea, it is a pariah state and, as such, is a candidate to engage in illegal trade generally. Bangladesh is the more troubling addition. Bangladesh would seem to have more pressing needs than seeking a nuclear option. On the other hand, they did begin independence as East Pakistan. Perhaps they still have some scores to settle.