Photo Credit: Russian Presidential Executive Office
Old Friends Together Again: Russia in Latin America
When it comes to Russia, significant focus has been given to Kazakhstan and Ukraine in recent weeks. However, more attention needs to be given to areas closer to home given that Russia is using the attention around this crisis to quietly strengthen its ties with Latin American states such as Cuba and Venezuela. On January 24, Putin spoke with Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel on the “current international situation and the development of future links in different spheres.” Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, went further in hinting that it could “neither confirm nor exclude” deploying Russian forces in Latin America. Such interest in the Western Hemisphere isn’t unprecedented, though Russia moving further into the region warrants significant concern for American policymakers.
A Russian Bear in a Yankee Pond
Russia has held long-standing ties and interests in Latin America since the Cold War. The Soviet Union supported numerous left-wing movements and governments up until its collapse. When the Soviet Union fell, its military posture in Latin America almost completely disappeared as it shuttered bases and sent troops home. But as Putin became an antagonist to the United States, those ties have been revived most notably in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba. This includes a notable effort to bolster Maduro after his fraudulent election. With Venezuela almost firmly under Russian influence, Putin could cause significant trouble for the United States in preserving its influence in Latin America.
Admittedly, Putin has limited means to destabilize the region by himself. Russia’s re-entry into Latin America is a far cry from its activities in the Cold War, and its ability to project force outside of its near abroad is limited today. Russia’s limited ability to project force in Latin America prompted Jake Sullivan and other experts to call Russia’s recent threat of deploying forces to the region a bluff. To better exert influence in Latin America, Russia could increase collaboration with China, given the latter’s investment in the region. As has been previously discussed by Tucker Hamilton, Chinese engagement in Latin America, “amounts to an extension of the traditional security competition to a new strategic theatre in the U.S. periphery…” Since China and Russia maintain close ties, it is possible that both nations can partner together and weaken American influence through economic and military means. If both can successfully place friendly governments in power or place military postings throughout Latin America, it could jeopardize American influence and security in the Western Hemisphere.
Protecting the Backyard
Currently, Latin America remains largely under U.S. influence, and Russia’s advances are limited in scope. But as China deeply engages in Latin America, there is a risk of nations drifting toward Chinese and Russian influence. Unfortunately, the United States tends to neglect Latin America unless a crisis emerges, with most of the focus going to either illegal immigration or narcotics. One example of this limited focus was displayed last summer when an assassination roiled Haiti and protests in Cuba barely received a response from the Biden administration. Despite numerous warnings from experts and military leaders, the U.S. still deprioritizes Latin America compared to Europe or East Asia, leading to long-term losses if there isn’t a reversal.
There are several steps that the U.S. should take to ensure Latin America remains insulated from Russian influence. The first would be to expand programs in security and humanitarian assistance. This can be done by providing the Office of Security Assistance within the State Department and SOUTHCOM with more resources and personnel to expand programs in counter-narcotics, security assistance, and humanitarian assistance. Another step would be to use this growing consensus around industrial policy to “friendshore” parts of supply chain towards Latin America, namely parts that cannot be reshored within the United States. This can build closer ties with American neighbors and provide economic stability in a region with stark inequality. Lastly, the United States should build relationships with local people and leading political parties, irrespective of ideology, to ensure bilateral relations remain consistent and close regardless of changing governments. Latin America has long been a sphere of influence for the United States; for it to remain so will require a long-term commitment and investment in the region.
