The Nuke Review: June 4 – June 10
The Nuke Review: June 4 – June 10
June 4th
IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano announced a meeting between the agency and Iran scheduled for June 8 in Vienna. The purpose of the meeting is to outline a structured approach for a probe into the suspected Iranian nuclear weapons program. Iran has stated that establishing such an approach is a prerequisite for access to the Parchin military site.
IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano clarified that the agency has no intention of accepting the DPRK’s invitation to send inspectors to North Korea. The invitation was originally extended in March 2012 to the agency, who indicated in April that they needed more information before accepting. Amano has now stated, “Through recent contacts with the DPRK, it has become clear that there is no immediate prospect of an agency mission taking place.”
A senior legislator from the Republic of Korea expressed the need for an independent South Korean nuclear deterrent. Representative Chung Mong-joon stated, “Peace cannot be secured without the balance of fear or nuclear weapons for nuclear weapons.” He went on to say, “Even if [South Korea] does not possess its own nuclear weapons immediately, it should secure the capability to possess them.” Representative Mong-joon is both a former presidential candidate and former party chairman of the ruling Saenuri Party.
The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), on behalf of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), has issued a threat against multiple media outlets in South Korea. According to Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia nonproliferation program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, the KCNA has issued a long, threatening statement that also lists the lat/long for major South Korean media outlets. These targets are to be struck, possibly with nuclear weapons, should [South Korean President] Lee not apologize for “hurting the dignity of the supreme leadership of the DPRK.”
June 5th
Pakistan’s GEO-TV reported the successful test of the ‘Babur’ (Hatf-7) nuclear-capable cruise missile. The ‘Babur’ was fired from an undisclosed location using a mobile launcher. The missile reportedly has a range of 700 km and equipped with stealth technology. This is Pakistan’s fifth nuclear-capable missile test since India tested the Agni V ICBM on April 20th.
June 6th
The House of Representatives Judiciary Committee passed the H.R. 5889, The Nuclear Terrorism Conventions Implementation and Safety of Maritime Navigation Act of 2012. The bill will now go before the full House for consideration. This legislation will satisfy the requirements of the 2005 amendment to the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material to which the United States is a party. The bill will also meet the legal standards required by the Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism, a regime to which the United States is not a party.
The House of Representatives passed an amendment to the Energy and Water Appropriations bill cutting $17.3 million from the NNSA’s MOX project at the Savannah River Site. The amendment cuts are to be used to allocate funds to other nonproliferation programs. Tom Clements, the nonproliferation policy director for the Alliance for Nuclear Accountability, commented that the financial cuts will unlikely have a significant impact on the project, but that they serve as a symbolic gesture of Congress’ increasing concern over MOX.
U.S. envoy Robert Wood accused Syria of using domestic political turmoil as a political tactic to avert an IAEA investigation. Syria has blamed the current uprisings for its inability to cooperate with the IAEA. In response, Robert Wood stated before a session of the board of governors, “This is a cynical rationale for continuing to stonewall the agency. The Syrian government’s own destabilizing actions are no justification for Syria’s refusal to abide by its commitments.”
U.S. Senator Dick Lugar announces recent accomplishments of Cooperative Threat Reduction Program. During the month of April, 2012:
- 1 biological threat monitoring station built and equipped;
- nuclear 2 weapons train transport shipments secured; and
- 70.08 metric tons of chemical weapons nerve agent destroyed.
Advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Akbar Velayati, suggested the possibility of reaching an agreement at the upcoming P5+1 talks should the West accept Iran’s right to enrichment. Velayati stated, “By accepting Iran’s right to use peaceful nuclear energy, the forthcoming talks in Moscow should reach a favorable result. This comment reaffirms a similar statement by Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Ramin Mehmanparast, last week where he said, “If Western countries acknowledge that Iran is enriching at 20% for peaceful purposes, but asks us not to do it, Iran will consider their request.
The newest Russian Borey class submarine, the Yury Dolgoruky, is scheduled for its first sea trial on June 7th. The trial will reportedly not test the submarine’s primary armament, the Bulava ICBM.
June 7th
Russian President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed support for Iran’s right to civilian nuclear energy. During the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Beijing, Putin stated, “We have always supported the Iranian people’s right to have modern technology, including the peaceful use of nuclear energy. But I would like to stress that this must be precisely for peaceful purposes.”
At 21.39 Moscow time, Russian Strategic Missile Forces completed a successful test launch of the RS-12M Topol (NATO designation SS-25) ICBM. The missile was launched from the Kapustin Yar missile site in the Astrakhan region of Russia and accurately reached the target range in Sary Shagan, Kazakhstan. According to Col. Vadim Koval, the purpose of the launch was to confirm the performance stability of this class of missile during its current service life extension.
June 8th
Officials from the Russian nuclear company Rusatom say negotiations over the transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technology (ENR) for India’s civilian nuclear program will be difficult. The complication arises from Russia’s previous promise to provide India with ENR in light of the 2011 Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) Noordwijk plenary decision to tighten the rules for transfers to non-NPT signatories. The Indian government’s position is that the transfer should fall under their NSG 2008 waiver. However, a Rusatom official was quoted as stating, “Russia is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and it intends to comply with its provisions. The transfer of ENR technology will be restrained to countries that want to develop this sensitive technology. Russia will observe all international obligations as per the treaties [it has signed].”
IAEA reports no progress in talks with Iran. The meeting at IAEA headquarters in Vienna was a follow-up to General Secretary Amano’s visit to Tehran last week. It was hoped that this meeting would reach an agreement for a structured approach to resume the IAEA’s investigation prior to the next round of P5+1 talks in Moscow later this month. IAEA global head of inspections Herman Nackaerts said that the meeting was disappointing in that no progress was made and that Iran had raised issues that were already discussed as well as new ones. While currently no new date has been scheduled, Iran’s IAEA ambassador Ali Asghar Soltanieh said that work on the structured approach would continue and there will be future talks.
June 9th
The Daily Telegraph has reported that despite UN Resolution 1874 China has failed to take action against Chinese companies assisting the DRPK with its ballistic missile program. The article is based on an intelligence report that shows North Korea companies continue to purchase restricted items in China.
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev reconfirmed plans for a next generation strategic bomber. Medvedev said that maintenance and modernization of the existing bomber fleet were not enough. His statements were only a few days after Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin expressed doubt over the future of the new strategic bomber. Rogozin commented, “Look at the current level of air defenses and anti-missile defense – these aircraft will not get anywhere. Not ours, not theirs.” He added further that strategic bombers should no longer be construed as viable delivery vehicles for delivering nuclear strikes.
