Today, for the first time in approximately five thousand years, Egyptians are headed to the polls to test the promises of their fledgling democracy in a presidential election.  The election is the first since former President Hosni Mubarak resigned his position in February 2011, following eighteen days of protests.  Following his resignation, Mubarak ceded power to the Egyptian military, which has often been criticized for its heavy-handed tactics including sometimes violent repression of subsequent protests and an international spat over the detention of 43 aid workers, among whom nineteen were US citizens.

The significance of today’s election in the context of Egypt’s history cannot be overstated.  Nearly six decades of military rule on top of several millennia of centralized rule are set to fall should the election proceed freely and fairly according to international standards.  The election will be indicative of the role Islam will play in Egypt’s national politics, how its diplomatic ties with Israel will be affected, and ultimately, how the US conducts itself in relations with the nation of 81 million.

The US is monitoring the election closely as the outcome will set precedents on several key aspects, not the least of which is whether political stability is restored within the nation.  The Mubarak regime had long been a pillar of stability in a notoriously unstable region, maintaining solid relations with the US, and cooperating with US foreign policy initiatives in the MENA region.  Additionally, Egypt possesses the largest military on the African continent and second largest in the Middle East behind Israel, making the US-Egypt military partnership one of the strongest in the region and providing the US with critical access to neighboring powers.

Egypt is one of the largest recipients of US foreign aid – approximately US$1.3 billion in military assistance per year and US$28 billion in economic and development assistance since 1975 – though this amount was recently cut to reclaim expenses incurred in extracting the nineteen aid workers in 2011.  Since the fall of the Mubarak regime, the continuation of US aid has been conditioned on the behavior of its military guardians and the upholding of the Peace Treaty signed between Egypt and Israel in 1979, ending thirty years of war between the two nations.

On a broader scale, the electoral process in Egypt speaks to the process of political transition.  Democratic transition is a relatively straightforward process: the political infrastructure is reorganized into a decentralized system with checks and balances; the economic system is reoriented towards market capitalism.  It is the consolidation and maintenance of this newly democratic system that poses the greatest challenge.  From any angle, democratic consolidation following a transition from authoritarian rule, regardless of how moderate, is fraught with potential pitfalls.

A lack of democratic inheritance is certainly one impediment to consolidation, but economic stagnation poses a more immediate risk to nations democratizing under the current economic conditions.  Solid economic performance is necessary to solidify political change.  When the domestic economy stagnates or fails, particularly within the first several years of democracy, a nation is likely to reverse course and return to a more authoritarian system of rule.  This is a pattern the world has witnessed countless times in many nations: a yo-yo effect between the promises of democracy and the tendencies of autocracy.

Egypt possesses many characteristics of a nation likely to wallow in semi-democratic rule for some time.  Though the nation is endowed with a young, educated population with a strong understanding of the principles of democracy, it is currently unable to provide an economy beyond tourism and external aid that can support a political transition, let alone its population.  While today’s elections may meet international standards and democracy will be realized – at least symbolically – in the nation, Egypt faces numerous challenges to the new democratic system it has fought so hard for.

It is in this space between transition and consolidation that the US can play a key role in Egypt’s future.  As one of Egypt’s primary aid donors, the US is capable of leveraging its support to influence the behavior of the new Egyptian government as well as its perception of the US and US foreign policy.  Bolstering US-Egypt relations is fundamental to all US relations within the MENA region.  Whether Egypt’s presidential election secures its transition to democracy or falls short of expectations, the US must work to ensure it maintains strong ties with its strategic partner to maintain access to the part of the world where it is most sorely needed.

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