Unanswered Questions
U.S. Envoy’s Cables Show Deep Concerns on Afghan Strategy – NYTimes.com
The ambassador, who left the military last April to become Mr. Obama’s emissary, also complained about an inadequate civilian counterpart organization to the NATO military command in Afghanistan. Nearly three months later, he is still expressing concerns about too few civilian experts in Afghanistan.
He also noted worries that the success of Mr. Obama’s Afghanistan policy hinged on Pakistani forces’ eliminating militants’ havens in the mountainous region near the Afghan border.
“Pakistan will remain the single greatest source of Afghan instability so long as the border sanctuaries remain,” he wrote. “Until this sanctuary problem is fully addressed, the gains from sending additional forces may be fleeting.”
Hopefully Gen. McChrystal and the pro-COIN advocates will be proved right. But if they aren’t, we won’t be able to say that no one was proposing a strong alternative assessment. Ambassador Eikenberry’s concerns — never well addressed by the pro-COIN camp — may well turn out to have been chillingly prescient. The dramatic escalation of the conflict may yet achieve positive results, but it is disturbing how much success rests on developments wholly out of our control — such as the success of good governance initiatives, anti-corruption, economic development, and most significantly the ability/desire of the Pakistanis to control their territory.
