U.S. Department of Commerce

Turkey is an important ally to the US, providing a strategic, geopolitical presence in the Middle East and Europe. It continues to play a major role in the conflict in Syria and has led the way in managing the refugee crisis, by taking in millions of refugees and alleviating significant pressure on the EU. Turkey’s stability is of vital importance to the United States and European Union.

Earlier this month, Turkish citizens voted in favor of a constitutional referendum that would transform the parliamentary system currently in place with a presidential one. Preliminary results suggest that the vote was incredibly close, with the “yes” vote leading by razor thin margins. Opposition groups have voiced their concerns over “widespread irregularities” during the balloting, questioning the legitimacy of the elections.

At the head of the referendum is current president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, backed by his Justice and Development Party (A.K.P), who argues the reforms will bring greater stability to the country. Critics warn this step will bring Turkey closer to a populist, one-man system. They fear the changes proposed threaten the system of checks and balances, an essential element in a functioning democracy.

The constitution, originating from the 1980 coup, bears a clear stamp of “military tutelage”. Efforts to amend this constitution began long before the proposed referendum. In 2011, a cross-party panel was formed in hopes of drafting amendments through the parliament, but after two years of negotiations, talks fell through as parties failed to reconcile their differences. Another attempt would be made 2 years later, but to no avail. Following the failed coup in 2016, President Erdogan turned to the people, allowing the electorate to determine the fate of Turkish politics.

Let’s examine the structural changes the different branches of government will undergo following the proposed referendum:

Executive branch:

• Prime ministry is abolished
• President does not have to be neutral; does not have to cut ties with political parties once elected
• President appoints vice president
• President can now declare a state of emergency; parliament has power to amend or cancel state of emergency
• President has 2 term limit.

Legislative branch:

• Parliament will have 600 members instead of 550
• Parliamentary and presidential elections take place every 5 years on the same day.
• The president prepares the annual budget to be approved by the parliament.

Judicial:

• Constitutional court will have 15 members, instead of 17
• Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK) is renamed and reduced to 13 members; 4 members appointed by the president; Justice Minister and his undersecretary are appointed by the president and occupy 2 more positions. 7 members are picked by the parliament.

Implications

These changes to the constitution will have major implications on the structure of government and the way it functions. This will influence domestic and international policy alike, by allowing the president to maneuver more freely on the political stage.

A blow to the oligarchy

Islamists in the Turkish government have had to function under heavy resistance and oversight from Kemalist elites and military generals. These elites and generals were viewed as the “bureaucratic oligarchy”, and have often taken a hostile position towards Islamists, upholding the ideas of the founder of the Republic of Turkey, Kemal Atatürk. The military played its role in resisting Islamists when it threatened a coup in 2008 over the nomination of an AKP candidate and in 2016 when it attempted and failed a coup.

Under the new referendum, the president, has the power to appoint 6 of the 13 members of the Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK), effectively undermining the bureaucratic oligarchy from the courts. But it must be noted that this measure also risks suppressing the voice of minority groups from the courts.

The referendum also effectively ends the oversight the military currently practices over government. The military will no longer have seats in the Supreme Court and will no longer function free from oversight. There will be regulations over military jurisdiction and military forces will now be audited by the State Supervisory Board.

A drift away from the EU

Immediately following proclamation of the referendum’s success, President Erdogan promised his supporters at a rally to reinstate the death penalty, reversing the position taken previously by the country in its efforts to join the EU. This promise came amid rising anti-western sentiments stemming from a growing mistrust of the EU. This move would effectively signal an end to the country’s bid to join the EU.

A decisive foreign policy

The changes brought about by the referendum leave a largely unchecked, presidential figure in power, allowing the office to maneuver more freely and decisively in the international stage. Erdogan’s willingness to walk away from the EU reflects a desire for Turkey to function as an independent leader in the region. We can expect greater involvement in Syria and Iraq and harsher policies directed towards the Kurdish PKK.

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