U.S. President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan speak at a joint press conference on November 13th, 2019. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons
U.S.-Türkiye Relations Will Remain Mixed Under Trump
With Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration as the 47th President of the United States, several world leaders have positively received the election results, including Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The U.S. and Türkiye enjoyed ambivalent relations during the previous Trump administration, but the positives in the relationship could continue with the second administration, such as mutual opposition of the Russia-Ukraine war and hopes for resolving the conflict. Yet there will also be rifts, including over differing opinions of the ongoing war in the Middle East. Therefore, U.S.-Türkiye relations will remain mixed under Trump for the next few years.
Türkiye and the U.S. have experienced multiple points of contention under Trump. For example, in 2020, the Trump administration sanctioned Türkiye for purchasing the Russian S-400 missile system in 2017 for $2.5 billion. Trump also threatened to destroy Türkiye’s economy in 2019 when Erdoğan planned to launch an offensive into Syria as the U.S. was pulling out. Despite these disagreements, there were also positives in the relationship at the time. For instance, Türkiye assisted the U.S. operation against ISIS that resulted in Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s death. Türkiye was also America’s 28th largest export market and 32nd largest import supplier in 2020, with trade growing to $21 billion.
However, Erdoğan’s hopes to have a better relationship with the U.S. in the second Trump administration may be slightly far-fetched. For example, the two countries have major disagreements on the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. The United States strongly supports Israel in ventures ranging from security to trade. Trump himself also supports Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war effort in Gaza. Moreover, his choices for his new cabinet are very pro-Israel, including Elise Stefanik as the Ambassador to the UN and Marco Rubio as the Secretary of State. Additionally, the U.S. designates Hamas as a foreign terrorist organization. Türkiye, meanwhile, does not consider Hamas to be a terrorist group, instead strongly opposing Israel’s ongoing conflict with the organization and even speaking openly with some of Hamas’s leaders. In November of this year, Erdoğan also cut diplomatic ties with Israel, calling for a ceasefire and humanitarian aid in Gaza. The strong divide between Türkiye and the U.S. on this issue shows no sign of improving.
Trump’s cooperation with Iraqi Kurdish leaders could also impact the Turkish government’s relations with the incoming administration. Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, like Erdoğan, lauded Trump’s reelection, as Trump’s administration had previously helped the Barzani government fight against ISIS in Iraq, and Barzani hopes that the second administration will bring stability to the Middle East. Trump has similarly stated that his relationship with Barzani was “tremendous.” Türkiye’s relations with the Kurds, meanwhile, are notoriously tense. Yet this October, during a significant period of turmoil and political development in the Middle East, Erdoğan met with President Nechirvan Barzani to discuss economic and regional development with Iraq. Hence, Türkiye and the U.S. are likely to grow closer given their mutual connection to Iraqi Kurdish leadership and its goals for regional stability.
Relations with the Kurds are also a significant point of contention for Türkiye and the United States. The U.S. previously worked with various Kurdish militias to counter the Islamic State in Syria, especially since, as the Washington Institute notes, the Kurds have been very effective in these operations. Yet Türkiye has designated two Kurdish militias, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and the affiliated Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), as terrorist groups. Washington’s actions to support armed Kurdish groups have therefore irritated Ankara, even though the U.S. has designated the PKK as a terror organization. At the same time, Trump has indicated a certain degree of admiration for Erdoğan. Though Trump has indicated as recently as December that he does not want to get involved in Syria, he has described Assad’s deposition as an “unfriendly takeover” by Turkey, while simultaneously describing Erdoğan as “someone I got along with great” and a “very smart guy.”
Finally, both Trump and Erdoğan hold similarly negative views on the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump has vouched for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and previously claimed numerous times that he would end the war within 24 hours. Erdoğan also opposes Russia’s invasion and provides Ukraine with military support, though he simultaneously opposes sanctioning Moscow, which is contrary to general Western consensus over how to confront Russia. Yet he believes that a U.S.-led, diplomacy-based effort would help peace come quickly, and so both nations could find common ground on this issue.
Ultimately, under the second Trump administration, as with the first, the United States and Türkiye will likely enjoy balanced relations overall. Yet if the negative elements overshadow the positives, this could be a sign of cracks within U.S. foreign policy and especially within NATO. Souring bilateral relations could inhibit crucial security cooperation in the Middle East as well as an important trade relationship, though this trade relationship is imbalanced due to the current deficit, which could strain diplomatic relations. While there is no one simple solution to ameliorate the strains between the nations, Trump must find a way to work past the differences if he and Erdoğan truly wish to improve relations—and that may ultimately be dependent upon the direct relationship between the two leaders.
